New Mexico Lobos (3-4) vs Utah State Aggies (6-1)Date : 10/27/2018
Time : 4:00 pm EST
Location : Merlin Olson Stadium, Logan, Utah
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
New Mexico Lobos vs Utah State Aggies
The New Mexico Lobos will travel to Merlin Olson Field in Logan, Utah, to battle the dangerous Utah State Aggies on Saturday afternoon at 4 pm EST. The Lobos are coming off a 38-7 home loss to the Fresno State Bulldogs last Saturday as they dropped their third game in four outings while allowing three passing touchdowns along with two on the ground for the Bulldogs in the loss. The Aggies were victorious on the road versus the defensive minded Wyoming Cowboys in their last outing as they got two rushing touchdowns from Darwin Thompson along with a 99-yard kickoff return in the third quarter from Savon Scarver to seal the victory, their sixth straight. The last time these teams met was on November 4, 2017 as the Aggies picked up the 24-10 road win as they covered as three-point home favorites. The road team has covered in four of the last five game while the under is 4-0 in the last four meetings amongst these two squads.
New Mexico Lobos's Latest Performance :
Utah State continued to roll on the road versus the Wyoming Cowboys in their last matchup as they overcame a slow night in the passing attack to hammer the Cowboys on the ground for 141 yards with Thompson leading the charge with 109 yards and two touchdown runs. Their defense allowed the Cowboys to hold the ball for 37 minutes while also giving up a whopping 231 yards rushing to the home team as well, exceeding their per game average by over 70 yards. The passing game, as stated, struggled throughout the night in gaining on 53 yards total as Jordan Love went only 12 of 28 for the day. In all, it was impressive for the Aggies to pull out all the stops in which to pick up a hard-fought victory. In fact, their last outing was the first time that they scored less than 30 points all season. Their defense, however, kept them in the game in allowing the Cowboys to convert only seven of 19 third down conversion while collecting two turnovers in the contest.
Utah State Aggies's Latest Performance :
The Lobos began the season 1-0 in the Mountain West conference with a huge 50-14 blowout road win over the UNLV Runnin rebels, yet, lost two straight games by 58-25 margin while finding themselves currently in the fourth place slot. They will have a golden opportunity to make a statement in this game as they will take on the red-hot Utah State Aggies who have dominated the conference this year in averaging 48 points per outing. This may spell disaster for New Mexico as they are currently ranked 107th in total yards allowed with 442 yards per game along with giving up 273 yards passing per game, good for only 114th in the country. In their last outing, they not only allowed 433 total yards of offense to Fresno State while allowing them to put up 280 yards in the contest for a 9.2 yards per carry average as Marcus McMaryion threw three touchdown passes with KeeSean Johnson ending with 149 yards along with two touchdown catches in the win for the Bulldogs. The Lobos only mustered 280 yards on the night as their rushing attack collected 148 yards for the game with Tyrone Owens leading the way with 83 yards on 19 rushes while QB Sherrion Jones ended the day with 132 yards, a touchdown, along with a pick in the loss.
How New Mexico Lobos & Utah State Aggies Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
New Mexico is 3-4 ATS while the OU is 5-2
Utah State is 6-1 ATS while the OU is 6-1
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Utah State will certainly be looking to have a much more productive day on offense versus a New Mexico team that is both horrible in defending the pass and run this season. Nonetheless, while the Lobos have gone 2-2 on the road, they have given up 26 points per game while the offense put up a tad under 30 points during this time. With that being said, the Aggies have been most effective at home as they are putting up 58 points per outing while allowing just 21 points to their opponent. The Aggies have covered the spread in each of their four home games this season.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Utah State Aggies -21
My reason for the pick :
Utah State, as stated, has covered the spread in each of their home games this year while being 6-1 for the year ATS, overall. New Mexico has not been bad ATS as well this year as they are 3-1; However, they have only gone 1-3 ATS recently as they have had to endure a damaging losing streak. With that being the case, look for the Aggies to atone for their less than stellar performance in their passing attack in Laramie versus the Lobos while covering the 21 points. While Utah State continues to possess confidence, they really need a much better showing in this game to reassert themselves offensively as the bowl committee will certainly need to see that they are a viable squad in which to challenge bigger name teams as the bowl season slowly approaches.
Totals Selection: Pick: Over 63.5
My reason for the prediction :
Despite their recent rough patch, the Lobos continue to average over 30 points per game this season. Also, it would be important to add that they were putting up over 40 points per game before they lost their last two outings. With that being said, expect the Lobos to be competitive in this matchup early as the over has been the play in three of their four outings on the road this season. On the other hand, the over has been the result in each of Utah State’s home game this season and they will certainly look to take advantage of a New Mexico squad that has lacked an ability to defend in the past, as this is where the Aggies are most dangerous. Their rushing attack will also find success against the Lobos as they are giving up 169 yards per game. In all, the over will be a strong play in this Mountain West showdown on Saturday.
Betting trends for New Mexico Lobos:
- Under is 6-1 in Lobos last 7 games in October.
- Lobos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Betting trends for Utah State Aggies:
- Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Aggies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.