South Florida Bulls (7-0) vs Houston Cougars (6-1)Date : 10/27/2018
Time : 3:30 pm EST
Location : TDECU Stadium, Houston, Texas
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
South Florida Bulls vs Houston Cougars
The 20th ranked Bulls of South Florida will travel to TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas, to take on the Houston Cougars in AAC action on Saturday at 3:30 pm EST. In their last meeting, the Cougars picked up the 28-24 road win as they covered as ten-point underdogs. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four outings amongst these teams. In their last outing, the Bulls picked up the 38-30 home win over the UConn Huskies last Saturday as they outscored the visitors 34-23 in the second half after a 7-7 tie at the half en route to the win. The Cougars also picked up a 48-36 road win over the Navy Midshipmen in their last time out as D’Eriq King threw for 413 yards along with three TD’s to spearhead the win.
South Florida Bulls's Latest Performance :
South Florida has remained consistent as their undefeated record suggests. They are only 2-5 ATS this year, however, yet has found ways to squeak out huge victories so far this season. The offense is putting up 36 points in their last three road games while the defense has allowed 28 points away from home this season. In fact, their last road game was a nail-biter as they barely escaped the Tulsa Golden Hurricane by a 25-24 score on October 12th. Their last game versus the UConn Huskies at home provided a bit more of a cushion for the Bulls as they were never in jeopardy of losing as they went up by 31-14 at one point while cruising to victory. Johnny Ford was the man of the hour as he scored three rushing touchdowns along with racking up 164 yards total for a Bulls team that collected 346 rushing yards for the day. On the other hand, Blake Barnett and the passing game put up 265 yards as he threw a touchdown pass along with two picks. Randall St. Felix had two catches for 123 yards and a touchdown catch in the game as the Bulls averaged 9.5 yards per catch. Nonetheless, the Bulls gave up over 300 yards rushing to the Huskies, thus signaling the alarm that the Cougars may be in for a successful day on the ground.
Houston Cougars 's Latest Performance :
The Houston Cougars have won four straight games as their offense has been the main catalyst for their success as they have averaged at least 40 points during this time. They have also gone 3-1 ATS during their winning streak while their defense has given up 24 points per game. Of course, the per game point average allowed for the defense was only 15 points before the Cougars ran into Navy last week, who put up 36 points on a Houston defense that is ranked 84th in points allowed with 29 per. Also, Houston came into the matchup ranking 55th in the nation in allowing just 147 yards to their opponents per outing, yet, Navy collected 344 yards on the ground in this contest versus 157 yards for the Cougars as King rushed for 56 yards and a score. The QB also threw for a game high 413 yards along with three touchdown passes for Houston en route to the win. Marquez Stephenson, Courtney Lark, along with Keith Corbin combined for 19 catches while all went over the century mark in receiving yards as they torched a shaky Navy secondary. Houston will now face a USF team that is also on a winning streak of their own and looking to extend their success by utilizing their dominant rushing attack, something the Cougars struggle with defending.
How South Florida Bulls & Houston Cougars Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Houston is 4-3 ATS while the OU is 4-3
South Florida is 2-5 ATS while the OU is 3-4
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
This will be a high scoring, offensive matchup in my view. Both teams are allowing a ton of yards to opponents, particularly in their rushing attack(s), while the passing game for Houston is ranked in the top ten in yards per game. Also, the Bulls passing attack is no slouch either as they are ranked in the top 30 in the nation with Bortles and company slinging the ball for almost 270 yards per contest. In all, look for this to be a back and forth affair to where points will not be at a premium.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Houston Cougars -7
My reason for the pick :
While the Bulls have performed well versus the competition this year and have found ways to win and remain undefeated, I will have to take the Cougars in this matchup as I believe that they are simply the better offensive team with the ability to get the much-needed scores in which to pull out a huge victory at home. Again, the Bulls have done well for themselves on the road, however, the Cougars possess one of the more dangerous offenses in the nation, as stated, and can really rack up points rather quickly. With that being the case, South Florida’s defense has really benefitted from having a better than average offense this year, yet they will suffer in this game versus King and company as they will ultimately endure their first loss of the season on Saturday while Houston will indeed cover the spread.
Totals Selection: Pick: Over 74.5
My reason for the prediction :
The over has been the play in four of the last seven games for the Cougars while being the result in two of the last three games for the Bulls. With the types of offenses that both teams possess along with having defenses that are very inconsistent, I will back the over in what I expect to be an offensive game to where not much defense will be played throughout the game, thus allowing the high total to be surpassed in the end.
Betting trends for South Florida Bulls:
- Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 8-1 in Bulls last 9 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Betting trends for Houston Cougars :
- Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1 in Cougars last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Cougars last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.