Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2) vs Purdue Boilermakers (4-4)Date : 11/03/2018
Time : 3:30 pm EST
Location : Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Indiana
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Iowa Hawkeyes vs Purdue Boilermakers
The 18th ranked Iowa Hawkeyes will travel to Ross-Aide Stadium in West Lafayette, Indiana, as they will match up against the Purdue Boilermakers for a huge Big Ten showdown on Saturday afternoon at 3:30 pm EST. Both teams are coming off deflating conference losses as the Hawkeyes came up short on the road versus the Penn State Nittany Lions by a 30-24 score as they fought hard throughout the first half yet lost their way in the second half as a Trace McSorley touchdown run along with two huge field goals by Jake Penigar sealed the much-needed win for the Nittany Lions in the end.
The Boilermakers did not perform well versus a stout defense for the Spartans as Michigan State held Purdue to only 62 yards on the ground along with 277 yards passing for David Blough as he threw three interception in the game. The last time these teams met was on November 18, 2017 when the Boilermakers pulled off the 24-15 road win as they covered as six-point home favorites. The Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in West Lafayette while the road team is 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings. The over is 5-2 in the last seven games amongst these two teams, overall.
Iowa Hawkeyes's Latest Performance :
Iowa dominated the Nittany Lions during the first half of their last outing. When the game ended, the Hawkeyes finished with 135 yards on the ground led by Mekhi Sargent with 91 yards on 16 rushes, yet Nathan Stanley passed for 205 yards, but, his two interceptions signed the death nell for the road team as they each came on promising drives. McSorley also threw a pick six in the game as this allowed Iowa to tighten the Penn State lead to 27-24 early in the fourth period. Nonetheless, Jake Pinegar iced the game with a 44-yard field goal with 8:24 remaining in the game as Iowa would not threaten for the remainder of the contest.
The Hawkeyes are averaging 30 points a game for the year yet in their last two outings, they are only putting up 23.5 points per game. In fact, while Stanley has passed for 15 TD’s in his last six games, he also threw an interception in each of those contests. Nonetheless, the Hawkeyes have covered in two of their three road games this year and seek to continue this trend versus a dangerous Purdue team.
Purdue Boilermakers's Latest Performance :
Purdue never had a chance offensively due to the Spartans limiting their rushing attack to only 62 yards. DJ Knox led the team with 51 yards on seven rushes, but, because Blough threw three costly interceptions in the contest that allowed for great field position for the Spartans, the Spartans cashed in just enough points to get the win in the end. Rocky Lombardi was instrumental in Michigan State’s win as he passed for 318 yards along with two touchdowns while the Boilermakers allowed only 2.7 yards per rush in the contest.
Despite the loss, Purdue are winners of four of their last five outings and currently reside in the third place slot within the Big Ten West division behind Wisconsin (3-2) and Iowa (3-2). In other words, with a win, the Boilermakers can jump to the third-place spot with a contest versus the Badgers looming on November 17th. In all, Purdue controls their destiny, however, they must be able to get past a hungry Iowa team that will certainly be beside themselves after giving one away last weekend.
How Iowa Hawkeyes & Purdue Boilermakers Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Iowa is 6-2 ATS while the OU is 5-3
Purdue is 5-3 ATS while the OU is 4-4
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
As stated, despite their offensive outputs last weekend, both teams are very dangerous in that Blough and Stanley have combined for 28 TD’s in their last six games. Nonetheless, they will be facing defenses that allow a combined 19 points per game to their opponents for the season. In other words, this will be another defensive battle for both teams as much is on the line. Of course, the Hawkeyes seek to remain in the second-place spot within the division while Purdue seeks to not only atone for their last outing, but, to also increase their positioning in preparation for a matchup with the Badgers down the line.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Purdue Boilermakers -3
My reason for the pick :
Nate Stanley has thrown four interceptions in this last three conference games and is probable with a thumb injury for this matchup. Of course, no one can truly know the true pain that he is experiencing at this point or his state of mind at/around game time. With that being said, I will back the home team in the Boilermakers to cover in this contest as Knox has performed well all season long and will have to have a solid outing versus the Hawkeyes, which are ranked 4th in the nation in stopping the run. Purdue also ranks in the top 35 in stopping the run as well. Furthermore, with rain in the forecast, expect a heavy dose of the run game along with a continuous battle in the trenches as the home team will win in the end while covering the small spread.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 51
My reason for the prediction :
The under was the play in the matchup amongst these teams last year and I expect the same in tis matchup as both defenses will take center stage as the rushing attack for both teams will attempt to make some headway versus two stingy defenses. As stated, there will not be much passing going on with rain in the forecast, thus allowing for the clock to run freely as a battle for control of the line of scrimmage will ensue. This will certainly allow the under to be the play in this matchup.
Betting trends for Iowa Hawkeyes:
- Over is 6-0 in Hawkeyes last 6 road games.
- Hawkeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
- Over is 5-1 in Hawkeyes last 6 conference games.
Betting trends for Purdue Boilermakers:
- Under is 6-1 in Boilermakers last 7 games following a straight up loss.
- Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Boilermakers last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.