Air Force Falcons (3-5) vs Army Black Knights (6-2)Date : 11/03/2018
Time : 12:00 pm EST
Location : Michie Stadium, West Point, New York
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Air Force Falcons vs Army Black Knights
The Air Force Falcons will travel to battle the Army Black Knights on Saturday afternoon at noon at Michie Stadium in West Point, New York. The Black Knights won their fourth straight game by picked up a 37-22 road win over the Eastern Michigan Eagles as their triple option attack put up 289 yards total while they also passed for 126 yards en route to the victory. On the other hand, the Falcons of Air Force dropped their last outing at home to the Boise State Broncos by a 48-38 score as they kept the game within single digits for much of the game, however, Brett Rypien passed for five touchdowns for the Broncos thus sealing the victory in the end. The last time these teams met, the Black Knights shutout the Falcons 21-0 in Colorado Springs last year while also covering as 6.5 road underdogs. In all, the Falcons are 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings at West Points while the under is 4-1 in the last four meetings amongst these teams at West Point, overall.
Air Force Falcons's Latest Performance :
The Falcons lost their second game in three outings as they allowed Brett Rypien to torch their defense for five touchdowns along with 399 yards int their last outing. Of course, with the Falcons coming into the game with the 101st ranked defense in defending the pass, one should not be surprised at the results; However, Boise State’s Alexander Mattison rushed for 136 yards and a TD against Air Force’s 16th ranked rushing attack as well. Finally, John Hightower and Sean Modster combined for 14 catches for 283 yards with Hightower having three TD’s.
On the other hand, Isiah Sanders seemed to be the only offense for the Falcons as he threw for 210 yards and two TD’s while rushing for 97 yards and a TD in the loss. The Falcons are now 1-4 in the Mountain West with games versus New Mexico, Wyoming, and Colorado State remaining on their schedule. With a 3-5 record on the season, they need a win in three of their last four to become bowl eligible. They may find it difficult in this game, however, as Army is clicking on all cylinders on both sides of the ball.
Army Black Knights's Latest Performance :
Army jumped out to a 16-0 halftime lead versus the Eagles of Eastern Michigan in their last time out as they racked up 289 yards on the ground on a shaky Eagles defense as Kelvin Hopkins Jr was outstanding yet again as he rushed for 105 yards on 23 carries. Also, Hopkins Jr passed for 126 yards along with two TD’s to two difference receivers in the contest. The Black Knights 7th ranked rush defense allowed only 34 yards on the ground to the Eagles while allowing 201 yards with two passing TD’s yet only allowed the Eagles to possess the ball for 14 minutes for the game along with converting on 14% of their first downs.
Hopkins Jr has been a one man show for the Black Knights this year, however, their defense, which ranks highly in every major defensive category, have only allowed 20.6 points per game for the year and should be given credit. They will battle an Air Force squad that has struggled mightily this year in their rushing attack while their defense has been the exact antithesis of Army in allowing 27 points per outing.
How Air Force Falcons & Army Black Knights Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Air Force is 4-3-1 ATS while the OU is 3-5
Army is 5-2-1 ATS while the OU is 5-3
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Expect a heavy dose of the run game in this matchup as these two service academies will get together to prove which team is best. In many instances, one can throw overall records out the window in these types of games, however, one must look at the fact the Army is indeed the better team. Furthermore, playing at home will certainly provide them a huge advantage as well over a Falcons team that 1-4 on the road this season. The Black Knights, on the other hand, are undefeated at Michie Stadium and will look to take out the Falcons for the second time in two years.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Army Black Knights -7
My reason for the pick :
I will ride with Army in this matchup as they are the better team, as stated. And while one can often throw records aside when service academies get together, the cream always rises to the top. In this case, look for Army to overpower the Falcons within the trenches on both sides of the ball throughout this contest. The Black Knights are efficient on offense in averaging 33 points per game on the season, however, their defense has been very stout as well in stopping both the run and pass. In all, expect Army to cover on Saturday while handing the Falcons yet another loss on a forgettable season.
Totals Selection: Pick: Over 43
My reason for the prediction :
While the under was the play in last year’s matchup, I will back the over since the Army offense has been playing so well this year along with Air Force’s defense giving up so many yards and points to their opponents throughout 2018. As stated, Kelvin Hopkins Jr is a must see and runs the Army offense so well. On the other hand, the Black Knights have begun to incorporate a passing attack into their offense, thus making teams respect both areas of their offense. With that being said, the over has been the play in the last four games for Army while being the result in the last two games for the Falcons, which allows me to feel confidence that points will be scored early and often in this contest.
Betting trends for Air Force Falcons:
- Over is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 non-conference games.
- Under is 10-1 in Falcons last 11 vs. INDEP.
Betting trends for Army Black Knights:
- Black Knights are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. MWC.
- Over is 4-0 in Black Knights last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Black Knights last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.