Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-2) vs Alabama Crimson Tide (5-3)Date : 11/10/2018
Time : 7:30 pm EST
Location : Bryant Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide
The 21st ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs will face the top ranked team in the nation in the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday night at 7:30 pm EST at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. The Tide picked up a 29-0 win over the highly ranked LSU Bulldogs last weekend as they limited the top ranked Tigers rushing attack to only 12 yards for the contest. On the other hand, Joe Burrow and the passing game only racked up 184 yards in the air along with an interception. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, picked up a home win outside of the SEC versus the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech by a 45-3 score as Nick Fitzgerald threw for four TD’s along with running for over 100 yards in the win. Alabama picked up the 31-24 road win in their last meeting as they outscored Mississippi State 14-3 in the final period to come out with the touchdown victory while the Bulldogs covered as 14-point underdogs at home.
Mississippi State Bulldogs's Latest Performance :
While Nick Fitzgerald has been the tip of the spear for the Bulldogs offense by leading the team in not only passing, but, rushing (839) along with TD’s (9), the defense should be given much credit as they are ranked 17th or better in the nation in every major defensive category in 2018. In fact, they have allowed only allowing 11 points in their last four games. With that being said, look for their defensive unit to test a rushing attack for the Tide that puts up over 200 yards per game along with collecting over 300 yards per game in the air.
Nonetheless, they showed physicality within the trenches in their last matchup as they allowed just 238 total yards to Louisiana Tech while allowing their passing game only 3.2 yards per catch in the meantime. Their rushing attack put up 140 yards for the day, however, the Bulldogs rushed for 289 yards total for the game with Fitzgerald leading the attack with 107 yards.
Fitzgerald has been the catalyst in allowing the Bulldogs to right the ship after a rough patch to where they lost two of three games. In all, they will continue to rely on this experience and leadership, however, with such an aggressive and physical defense for the Crimson Tide, they will certainly need to beat them at the point of contact to allow Fitzgerald the room to maneuver in the pocket.
Alabama Crimson Tide's Latest Performance :
The Crimson Tide collected 576 yards total for their battle versus the Tigers in their last outing while allowing LSU to only put up 196 yards total. And while the passing attack along with Tua Tagovailua threw for 295 yards, two TD’s, along with an interception, the rushing attack was dominant in gaining 281 yards on the ground on a stout LSU defensive front. Damien Harris (19 rushes, 107 yards, TD) along with Jerry Jeudy (8 rec, 107 yards) led the passing and receiving corps for Alabama as they remained undefeated while keeping the Tigers in the second place slot within the SEC West division.
Tagovailoa continued his stellar streak this season, albeit in pedestrian fashion in throwing for two TD passes along with an interception. In his last five games, he has thrown 15 TD’s along with only one pick. He has been even more impressive on the road this season in throwing 12 touchdown passes along with only a pick. The Tide seeks to continue their outstanding play at home, where they are 3-2 ATS on the year, to battle a Mississippi State squad that is very stout on defense while allowing only 12.3 points per game to their opponents this year.
How Mississippi State Bulldogs & Alabama Crimson Tide Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Mississippi State is 5-3 ATS while the OU is 1-6
Alabama is 5-3 ATS while the OU is 6-2
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
This will be an interesting game in that the Tide will look to follow up their win over the Tigers by beating up on the Bulldogs who have had some success recently. The Bulldogs are 1-2 ATS on the road while the Tide is 3-2 ATS at home this year. Also, Alabama will likely win out their schedule this year and will like to be sharp for what seems to be a rematch with Georgia in the SEC championship. With that being said, the Bulldogs have played well recently, as stated, and would like nothing better than to take out the top ranked teams on the road to add some more pep to their season.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Alabama Crimson Tide
My reason for the pick :
I will back Alabama to come out with the very hard-fought victory in this matchup, however, look for the Bulldogs to keep this close for much of the game. In other words, Fitzgerald has been stellar this season for Mississippi State and will love nothing better than to get a crack at the Tide in Tuscaloosa. With that being said, look for them to play well for the most part while the Tide will pull away late. Remember, the Bulldogs defense will be the key in this game as they seek to tame the passing attack for Alabama as they rank 7th in the nation in defending the pass. Also, their rush defense is only allowing 111 yards on the ground per game.
Totals Selection: Pick: Over
My reason for the prediction :
I will back the over in this contest as the Bulldogs will put some points on the board early due to Fitzgerald hoping to get a good start versus such a dominant team as the Crimson Tide. Also, the offense for Alabama will test the resolve of the pass secondary for the Bulldogs all game long as they will also put some points on the board. With that being said, look for this to be a back and forth game offensively as the Tide defense will pick up the critical stops late in the game. Nonetheless, the total will remain under its set limit.
Betting trends for Mississippi State Bulldogs:
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Mississippi State’s last 11 games when playing Alabama
- Mississippi State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Alabama
- Mississippi State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi State’s last 5 games on the road
Betting trends for Alabama Crimson Tide:
- Alabama is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Alabama’s last 5 games at home