Liberty Flames (4-4) vs Virginia Cavaliers (6-3)Date : 11/10/2018
Time : 3:00 pm EST
Location : Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, Virginia
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Liberty Flames vs Virginia Cavaliers
The Liberty Flames will make a visit to Scott stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia in which to take on the Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday afternoon at 3 pm EST. The Cavaliers are coming off a huge 23-13 home setback to the surging Pittsburgh Panthers in their last time out as their normally stout defense could find no answers for a Pitt rushing attack that put up 254 yards for the game. The loss also halted a three-game winning streak for Virginia.
On the other hand, the Flames fell by three points on the road to the UMass Minutemen last Saturday as they were outdueled in total yards (777-488) while being torched in their pass defense as UMass put up 540 yards along with four TD passes for the three OT contest. This will be the first ever meeting amongst these teams, however, each will be looking to get back into the win column after two heartbreaking losses the week prior.
Liberty Flames 's Latest Performance :
The Flames may be ranked last within the Independent conference; however, they possess a very potent passing attack with Steven Calvert passing for over 2500 yards along with 18 touchdowns for the year. The problem is that he has eleven INT’s as he threw four in the Flames’ last outing as they fell to the UMass Minutemen, despite keeping the game interesting throughout. Calvert passed for 272 yards along with two touchdowns, but, also had four picks in the overtime loss.
The rushing attack was potent in putting up 216 yards as Frankie Hickson ran for 133 yards along with two scores for Liberty. Finally, their leading receiver for the year, Antonio Gandy Golden, led the corps with 205 yards with two TD catches, which marked his fourth straight game with 100 or more yards with at least one touchdown catch. The Flames are averaging 36 points per game this year and will certainly have to work for every yard this week against a UVA defense that will be looking to atone for their last loss versus Pitt.
The defense for Liberty has ben the cause of their losing as they are ranked at or over the 100’s in college football in just about every defensive category. And with them giving up 38 points per game, the offense has seemingly had to score each time they possessed the ball in which to win with consistency. However, with the struggles on offense for Virginia at this time, they may well gain some confidence on the defensive side of the ball in this matchup.
Virginia Cavaliers's Latest Performance :
Virginia was simply pushed around in their last outing versus the Panthers of Pittsburgh. And for a defense that ranks 29th in the nation in stopping the run, it was very surprising. Darrin Hall rushed for 221 yards along with three TD’s versus a Virginia team that has been stout in every defensive category this year. Nonetheless, with the loss, the Cavaliers lost their top seeding ranking with the ACC Coastal to the Panthers while halting a three-game winning streak. The Virginia offense has been inconsistent all year long however, as QB Bryce Perkins threw 4 TD’s compared to four interceptions during their three-game winning streak while their leading rusher in Jordan Ellis ended their game with the Panthers with 46 yards on ten carries with one score as he did not hit the 100 yard mark in either game during their prior three game winning streak.
Their defense, as stated, is as solid as they come. Aside from giving up 254 yards on the ground to a punishing Pitt rushing attack, they allowed only 61 yards in their passing attack as Kenny Pickett went seven of 14 for the game.
How Liberty Flames & Virginia Cavaliers Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Liberty is 3-5 ATS while the OU is 5-3
Virginia is 7-2 ATS while the OU is 4-5
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
This game will certainly be an interesting one for the Cavaliers. They essentially blew the ACC Coastal title with their terrible loss versus Pitt last week. Nonetheless, they will certainly be playing for a nice bowl game. Nonetheless, they must get back on the winning track to reel off some wins these next few weeks, beginning with a pass happy Liberty squad.
Liberty will do what they do best, which is pass the football throughout the game. As stated, the pass secondary has been decent in defending in this area in 2018, however, Calvert and company has many playmakers as their offense will be looking to step up the pace a bit to fatigue the defense for the Cavaliers.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Liberty Flames +23.5
My reason for the pick :
Flames are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. ACC.
Flames are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Flames are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Virginia Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. INDEP.
Over is 6-0 in Cavaliers last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game
Okay, so UVA gets 23.5 points after being manhandled on both sides of the ball by Pitt. Also, they are heavily favored despite their offense not being efficient in terms of scoring. I simply do not trust UVA on the offensive side at this point in the season. And while they will certainly score versus a terrible Flames defense, look for the Flames to keep this game within the spread as they certainly have an outstanding passing attack that may exploit the Cavaliers pass defense that gives up a tad under 200 yards passing per outing.
Totals Selection: Pick: Over 58
My reason for the prediction :
I have the feeling that this will be a shootout to where the Flames will once again, need to score constantly in which to make up for their defenses inability to stop anyone all season. With that being said, Liberty will get their passing game going early while also utilizing their rushing attack that averages 158 yards per game in which to put points on the board. In all, take the over as the strong play in this matchup as both will find success in working their strengths versus the opposing defense.
Betting trends for Liberty Flames :
- Flames are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. ACC.
- Flames are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Flames are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Betting trends for Virginia Cavaliers:
- Virginia Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. INDEP.
- Over is 6-0 in Cavaliers last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game