Navy Midshipmen (2-7) vs Central Florida Knights (8-0)Date : 11/10/2018
Time : 12:00 pm EST
Location : Spectrum Stadium, Orlando, Florida
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Navy Midshipmen vs Central Florida Knights
The Navy Midshipmen will take to the road for Florida as they will take on the Central Florida Knights at Spectrum Stadium in Orlando, Florida, on Saturday afternoon at noon. The Midshipmen are coming off an embarrassing 42-0 shutout road loss to the Cincinnati Bearcats in their last time out while losing their sixth straight game, overall. The Knights have continued their stellar play all season while picking up a 52-40 home victory over the Temple Owls in their matchup last Saturday as the defense held the Owls to only six points in the second half after two 17 point quarters in the first. The Knights have won all but one of their games this year by 12 points or more. In last years matchup, UCF picked up a ten-point win on the road versus Navy in a 31-21 victory while the spread was a push.
Navy Midshipmen's Latest Performance :
The Midshipmen offense has averaged 17 points per game in their last five games. QB Zack Abey has taken control of the offense in place of an injured Malcolm Lewis, and he only passed for 47 yards for the game versus Cincinnati while rushing for 37 yards on 23 carries in a 42-0 blowout loss to the Bearcats. Also, the Midshipmen converted on only three of 12 third down conversion. Furthermore, their 3rd ranked rushing attack put up only 124 yards for the game. Of course, with the Knights allowing a ton of yardage to their opponents this year, they may find a bit more success in their triple option attack on Saturday.
The defense for Navy has been terrible this year as they are ranked at or near the 100’s in every major defensive category while also allowing over 40 points per game in their last four outings where they are 0-4 ATS (2-7 ATS on the year). Central Florida is potent on offense and clicking on all cylinders at this point. In other words, Navy will have to bring their A+ game in which to keep this game competitive.
Central Florida Knights's Latest Performance :
Central Florida continues to dominate their competition. McKenzie Milton was a catalyst for their stellar play as he passed for 312 yards in his last outing along with three touchdowns with just a pick in their win over Temple at home. The rushing attack destroyed the Owls defense in this matchup as they racked up 318 yards on the ground led by Greg McCrae with 188 yards along with a score. Their offense is ranked in the top 25 in each offensive category this year and while the unit can be the blame for their undefeated standing in the college football world currently, their defense is just as potent in allowing 21 points per game to their foes.
On the other hand, the defense does indeed give up a ton of yardage to their opponents in allowing 430 yards per game, good for only 96th in the nation. Nonetheless, look for them to have success versus a Navy team that has struggled on both sides of the ball, particularly offensively as they are averaging a new low of 25 points per game as their triple option offense has not played with the necessary physicality and focus this year.
How Navy Midshipmen & Central Florida Knights Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Navy is 1-8 ATS while the OU is 5-4
UCF is 6-2 ATS while the OU is 3-5
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
This game will certainly be a huge matchup for the Knights as they will match up with the second seeded Bearcats next week which will decide the AAC East division. There is always a tendency for the Knights to look ahead, however, look for them to remain disciplined in their approach to this game. Besides, Navy will certainly bring their best and will look for opportunities wherever they may be as they need a win in a desperate way.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Central Florida Knights -25.5
My reason for the pick :
As stated, Navy will not back down from Central Florida, however, they simply do not possess the talent and physicality at this point to keep this game interesting for four quarters. It is for this reason that I will back the Knights and the points at home. Also, with the Knights having such a great record ATS lately (5-1), I will certainly rely on them to play well in preparation for a visit from the Bearcats next weekend.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 63
My reason for the prediction :
And while the offense for the Knights will indeed score some points, look for them to score just enough to cover in this matchup. UCF, despite giving up 40 points in their last outing, has been solid all season in games such as these. They are, most importantly very disciplined which will certainly be critical versus such a complicated offense as the triple option for Navy. In all look for the under to be the play as Navy will not score much in this contest.
Betting trends for Navy Midshipmen:
- Midshipmen are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Midshipmen are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.
- Midshipmen are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Betting trends for Central Florida Knights:
- Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Knights last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Knights last 4 games in November.