North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils Preview, Prediction, and Free Pick 11-10-2018




North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils Preview, Prediction, and Free Pick 11-10-2018

North Carolina Tar Heels (1-7) vs Duke Blue Devils (6-3)

Date : 11/10/2018
Time : 12:20 pm EST
Location : Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, North Carolina

Pick, Prediction, & Preview:

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils

The North Carolina Tar Heels will travel to Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, North Carolina, to take on their ACC rival Duke Blue Devils on Saturday afternoon at 12 pm EST.  The Tar Heels come into this matchup losers of five straight games to where their last defeat came at the hands of the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets as they picked up the 38-28 win .  In other words, the visitors scored a late TD along with a field goal after the Heels tied the matchup at 28 early in the final period.

The Blue Devils have also struggled lately, yet picked up a 20-12 road victory over the Miami Hurricanes in their last time out as they shut out the Miami offense in the second half while posting 13 points during this time en route to the victory, their first in three games, overall.  The Blue Devils won the last meeting with UNC by a 27-17 score while also covering as 1.5-point underdogs.  It would be fair to state that the underdogs are 5-1 ATS in the last six games versus these two squads.

 

North Carolina Tar Heels's Latest Performance :

UNC has had problems with offensive efficiency all season long as they are ranked 63rd in both passing and rushing per outing; However, they are ranked 107th in scoring with only 23.6 points per game.  Nathan Elliot has attempted to keep his team competitive recently in throwing for five TD’s along with no interceptions in three games prior to their last contest versus the Yellow Jackets; However, he only threw for 128 yards along with three huge picks versus Georgia Tech as they took another loss on the chin, their fifth straight loss, overall.

Their rushing attack, however, did put up 166 yards versus the Yellow Jackets as Michael Carter had 68 yards on ten rushes while Anthony Ratliff-Williams ended with 103 yards on three catches.  And while the defense collected three turnovers in the game, they allowed 461 yards total as Tobias Oliver passed for a touchdown while rushing for two on 120 yards on 28 carries.  One should not be surprised with their defensive output as the Tar Heels are ranked in the 100’s or lower in every major defensive category in 2018.

 

Duke Blue Devils 's Latest Performance :

Duke had lost three of four games heading into their road matchup with Miami on Saturday.  In the end, they pulled out of Hard Rock Stadium with a hard earned 20-12 victory as their rushing attack put up just enough yards to score a victory over a dismal Miami offense.  Deon Jackson ended with 113 yards along with a TD while Daniel Jones passed for only 130 yards and a pick in the win.  Miami lost two fumbles in the game while racking up 73 costly yards in penalties which also was catalyst in the loss.

The defense allowed 300 yards rushing to the Hurricanes as Travis Homer and Deejay Dallas combined for 30 rushes for 257 yards along with a TD each.  Nonetheless, the Duke defense bottled up the passing attack for the Hurricanes as they only averaged 4 yards per catch.  They will certainly take this momentum into this game versus their heated Rivals as they have certainly been on the wrong side of the win-loss column this year.

 

How North Carolina Tar Heels & Duke Blue Devils Matchup.

Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:

 

North Carolina is 3-4-1 ATS while the OU is 5-2

Duke is 5-4 ATS while eth OU is 4-5

 

 

In-Depth Analysis of each team:

With this game being a rivalry matchup, one can certainly two out the stats to a certain extent, at least.  With that being said, while Duke may have been the better team in all phases this year, the Heels can certainly be a potent team if they become more efficient in converting third downs in which to stay on the field.  Look for Duke to really exploit every area of a dismal defense for North Carolina in this matchup as they have allowed a ton of points all year.  On the other hand, Duke is soft in their rush defense in ranking 102nd in the nation in allowing 200 yards per game.

Against The Spread Selection: Pick:  Duke Blue Devils -10.5

My reason for the pick :

 

 

I will back the Blue Devils in this matchup as they certainly have had much success facing the Tar Heels in the past.  Furthermore, the Blue Devils picked up a huge win over the Hurricanes in their last outing after losing two straight to Pitt along with Virginia.  The win will provide a much needed push moving forward as they will pull away from their in-state rival late in the game to pick up the huge victory while covering the spread in two straight games.

 

 

Totals Selection: Pick:  Under 56.5

My reason for the prediction :

The under has not only been the play in their last meetings amongst each other, but, has been the play in four of the last five games for the Blue Devils, whom I feel will possess much of the momentum going into the game.  With that being said, look for Duke to take control of the trenches in this contest to control the pace throughout.  In all, this will allow the total to remain low in what will be a competitive contest amongst ACC rivals.

Betting trends for North Carolina Tar Heels:

  • Over is 4-0 in Tar Heels last 4 road games.

  • Over is 5-1-1 in Tar Heels last 7 games overall.

  • Over is 5-1 in Tar Heels last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Betting trends for Duke Blue Devils :

  • Under is 5-1 in Blue Devils last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

  • Under is 5-1 in Blue Devils last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.

  • Under is 10-2 in Blue Devils last 12 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Falepa

A sports analyst and enthusiast, Filipa enjoys writing articles for NHL, NBA, NCAAB, and, of course, for NCAAF. In addition, he enjoys the true art of breaking down games in such as way as to locate certain trends that can impact future contests. With a willingness to research, construct, and relay information that any reader can understand, Filipa aims to provide the reader with interesting & indepth knowledge for upcoming sporting events.