Boise State Broncos vs. New Mexico Lobos Preview, Prediction, Free Pick, 11-16-2018

Boise State Broncos vs. New Mexico Lobos Preview, Prediction, Free Pick, 11-16-2018

Boise State Broncos (8-2) vs New Mexico Lobos (3-7)

Date : 11/16/2018
Time : 9:00 PM
Location : Dreamstyle Stadium

Pick, Prediction, & Preview:

Boise State Broncos vs New Mexico Lobos

The New Mexico Lobos return home to Dreamstyle stadium where they will welcome in Mountain West foe in the Boise State Broncos, the opening kickoff is slated for 9:00 PM. Boise State is still in contention for the Mountain division but they will need a little help from Utah State’s opponents while New Mexico is playing for pride after being eliminated from postseason play after a loss last weekend.

Boise State Broncos's Latest Performance :

The Boise State Broncos have been one of the favorites the last few years in terms of being the lone Group of 5 team to make a New Years Six Bowl and although they are having a down year to their standards they are coming off one of the more impressive victories in the Mountain West conference. The Boise State Broncos were able to beat the 23rd ranked Fresno State Bulldogs at home 24-17 behind a solid ground game and good defense. QB Brett Rypien has been excellent for the Broncos this season as he enters this game with 3048 yards, 25 TDs, and 7 interceptions but he wasn’t the main reason they won this past matchup against Fresno. Junior RB Alexander Mattison carried the ball 30 times in which he rushed for 144 yards and 2 TDs. Mattison has been a workhorse for the Broncos this season as he has rushed for 870 yards and 12 TDs. The receiving crop had a solid game all around as A.J. Richardson had 5 catches for 66 yards, Sean Modster had 5 catches for 63 yards, and Khalil Shakir had 4 catches for 59 yards and a TD. Junior safety Kekoa Nawahine still leads the team in tackles after he was able to record 10 tackles against an explosive Fresno State offense. Redshirt sophomore Curtis Weaver was able to record yet another sack which has him at a team-high 8.5 sacks.

New Mexico Lobos's Latest Performance :

The New Mexico Lobos have officially eliminated themselves from postseason play after losing on the road to Air Force last week which makes it 2 straight years that Bob Davie has failed to get this program into a bowl game. The Lobos were shredded on the ground against Air Force and they weren’t able to keep up on the offensive end which in return resulted in a blowout road loss, 42-24. The Lobos went with 2 QBs in this matchup as the main starter Sheriron Jones only threw for 114 yards and 1 interception. The JUCO transfer has had an slow year for the Lobos as his stat line currently sits at 1311 yards, 13 TDs, and 11 interceptions something Davie wants Jones to improve on for his senior season. Redshirt senior Coltin Gerhart was efficient when he saw time as he was able to go 6 for 7 with 72 yards but he failed to see the end zone through the air. The Lobos top back Tyrone Owens didn’t see to may carries as he rushed for 47 yards on 8 carries but backup Daevon Vigilant had a solid game as he rushed for 67 yards and a TD, the first of his young career. Like previously stated the passing game was non-existent but when the two QBs were able to connect it was with either Delane Hart-Johnson (3 catches for 83 yards) or Anselem Umeh (3 catches for 77 yards), two of the better WRs for New Mexico. Playing against a triple-option team you need your defense to step up in a big way and although the unit as a whole wasn’t great senior safety Stanley Barnwell was fantastic as he was able to compile 15 tackles which puts his season total at a team-high 62 tackles.

How Boise State Broncos & New Mexico Lobos Matchup.

Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:

Boise State is 5-4-1 ATS, 2-2-1 ATS on the road.

New Mexico is 4-6 ATS, 1-3 ATS at home.

In-Depth Analysis of each team:

Boise State ranks 27th in the nation in team scoring as they average 36.6 PPG while New Mexico ranks 52nd as they average 30.9 PPG.

Boise State ranks 39th in the nation in team defense as they hold opponents to an average of 23 PPG while New Mexico ranks 107th as opponents score an average of 35.1 PPG.

Against The Spread Selection: Boise State Broncos

My reason for the pick :

We got two teams trending in absolute opposite directions as Boise State still has a glimmer of hope to win the Mountain division and potentially sneak into a New Years Six Bowl while the Lobos will be implementing their young players and planning ahead to next year. The Boise State offense has been wonderful this season as Rypien has been good through the air and Mattison has been efficient on the ground. New Mexico on the other hand has been hit or miss on the offensive side of the ball and with them facing a solid defense like the Broncos I just don’t see them keeping pace in the scoring department. New Mexico has also been awful ATS when at home and on a weird Friday night I think we see the Broncos dominate the Lobos.

Betting trends for Boise State Broncos:

  • Boise State is 8-6-1 ATS as the road favorite since 2016.

Betting trends for New Mexico Lobos:

  • New Mexico is 2-4 ATS in Mountain West games this season.


I am a sports enthusiast and watch every sport from the NFL to the NHL with everything in between. I have followed sports since I was a young kid and have studied deep into statistics for teams, and players. I am always looking for transactions within sports and find in an interest in every game. Playing every sport growing up has led me to understand every game and look for certain trends and stats.