Arkansas Razorbacks (2-8) vs Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-4)Date : 11/17/2018
Time : 12:00 PM
Location : Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Arkansas Razorbacks vs Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Mississippi State Bulldogs return home to Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field for one final home game as they will play an SEC matchup against the Arkansas Razorbacks, the opening kickoff is slated for 12:00 PM. Arkansas is still seeking its 1st conference win of the season as they have failed to meet expectations in Chad Morris 1st season while Mississippi State is bowl eligible but have not been as competitive in the SEC as we have known them to be.
Arkansas Razorbacks's Latest Performance :
The Arkansas Razorbacks may only have 2 wins on the season but they have shown a sense of fight under Chad Morris and last game was an indication of that as they dropped a close game to the LSU Tigers 24-17. The Razorbacks were dependent on junior QB Ty Storey and he delivered especially in the 4th quarter where he tossed 2 TD passes against one of the best defenses in the nation. Storey attempted 38 passes connecting on 19 of them for 200 yards which was one of his best performances on the season. The running game for the Razorbacks was nowhere to be found against the Tigers as starting RB Rakeem Boyd picked up 30 yards on 10 carries. Boyd has been solid in his first season with the Razorbacks as the former Texas A&M Aggie has rushed for a team-high 645 yards on 104 carries. Junior TE Cheyenne O’Grady was able to continue his good season by contributing the only 2 TDs of the game to go along with the 75 yards he racked up. O’Grady has been one of the top targets for Storey all season long as he has compiled 27 catches for 359 yards and 6 TDs. The defense was able to step up in the 4th quarter against the Tigers as they held them off the scoreboard. Sophomore LB Dre Greenlaw had a huge game for the Razorbacks as he was able to rack up 12 tackles to extend his season total to 72 tackles. The Razorbacks had a solid pass rush against the Tigers as they were able to get home to the QB on 3 different occasions.
Mississippi State Bulldogs's Latest Performance :
Mississippi State may play in the hardest division in college football but that is inexcusable for a top program as they sit at 2-4 in the conference which has them sitting in 5th place under 1st-year coach Joe Moorhead. The Bulldogs are coming off arguably their toughest game of the season as they had to travel into a hostile environment and play one of the best college football teams we have seen over the last decade. Senior QB Nick Fitzgerald was unable to do much of anything against the Alabama defense as he was held to only 125 yards through the air and -23 yards on the ground. Fitzgerald has struggled through the air in Moorhead’s system as the dual-threat QB has thrown 10 TDs compared to 7 interceptions. Fitzgerald is the top rusher for the Bulldogs as he has been able to get loose for 816 yards and 9 TDs. Sophomore RB Kylin Hill had the best game out of any Bulldog offensive player as he was able to rush for 47 yards on 7 carries. The lone WR to reach 25 yards on the game junior Deddrick Thomas who had 2 catches for 25 yards. The defense for the Bulldogs was rattled early against the best offense in the nation but they picked up their play in the 2nd half as they held the Tide to only 3 points. Sophomore LB Willie Gray Jr. had a career game for the Bulldogs as he was able to rack up 9 tackles, 2 sacks, and 1 interception. This accounts for most of Gray’s production on the year as he only has 37 tackles, 3 sacks, and 1 interception through the first 10 games.
How Arkansas Razorbacks & Mississippi State Bulldogs Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Arkansas is 5-4-1 ATS, 0-2 ATS on the road.
Mississippi State is 6-4 ATS, 5-1 ATS at home.
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Mississippi State ranks 89th in the nation in team scoring as they score an average of 26.2 PPG while Arkansas ranks 95th as they score an average of 25.4 PPG.
Mississippi State ranks 5th in the nation in team defense as they hold opponents to an average of 13.5 PPG while Arkansas ranks 98th as they hold opponents to an average of 32.7 PPG.
Against The Spread Selection: Arkansas Razorbacks +21
My reason for the pick :
This is a classic letdown matchup for the Mississippi State Bulldogs as they are coming off a hard-fought loss against the Alabama Crimson Tide as well as have a big in-state rivalry game coming up against Ole Miss next weekend. Arkansas has slowly improved every week and with nothing to play for Morris will throw all the tricks in the book out as the season is coming to an end. If Arkansas is able to score 17 points against a top defense like LSU there is no reason they can’t score it against a top defense like Mississippi State. The Bulldogs also have not been able to score many points on the offensive end of things and I don’t think much changes in this game. I will back this 3 TD cushion for the Razorbacks.
Betting trends for Arkansas Razorbacks:
- Arkansas is 5-2 ATS after a loss this season.
Betting trends for Mississippi State Bulldogs:
- Mississippi State is 2-4 ATS in SEC matchups this season.