TCU Horned Frogs (4-6) vs Baylor Bears (5-5)Date : 11/17/2018
Time : 12:00 pm EST
Location : McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears
The TCU Horned Frogs will travel to McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas, to battle the Baylor Bears in Big 12 action on Saturday afternoon at 12 pm EST. The Horned Frogs are coming off a 47-10 drubbing on the road versus an outstanding West Virginia Mountaineer squad last weekend while the Bears suffered a 28-14 road loss to the tough, Iowa State Cyclones in their last time out. Both teams are playing for a potential both game at this point in the season with Baylor being one game shy of becoming eligible while the Horned Frogs will need to win both games remaining on their schedule in which to qualify for bowl consideration.
Nonetheless, the Horned Frogs picked up a 45-22 win in last year’s matchup, yet Baylor covered the spread as 24.5-point underdogs. In this game, the TCU defense collected three turnovers while allowing only 97 yards on the ground to Baylor’s offense. Baylor’s Charlie Brewer threw for 301 yards and two touchdowns in this contest as well while also leading the rushing attack with 49 yards. The over is 4-0 in the last four games between these teams at McLane Stadium in Waco.
TCU Horned Frogs's Latest Performance :
The TCU Horned Frogs defense has been their saving grace this year as they have had to take up the mantle for the team with major injuries across the board from their offensive unit, including QB Shawn Robinson, who’s season ended after a shoulder injury. Nonetheless, the D was being relied upon to keep the team in games all season; However, they have had issues with consistency and focus at critical points in their most recent games. Again, the Horned Frogs are ranked in the top 40 in yards allowed (355), pass yards (209), along with rush yards allowed (146). On the other hand, they are allowing 26 points per outing on the season, but, have increased this by almost ten points in recent outings.
In their last matchup versus the Mountaineers, they allowed Will Grier to throw the ball all over the field as he finished with 343 yards along with three TD’s and a pick. Their rushing attack also allowed 164 yards on the ground for the Mountaineers while the Horned Frogs ended the game with a total of -7 yards rushing. And while Michael Collings was a bright spot in throwing for 229 yards and a score while Jalen Reagor had 109 yards and a TD catch, TCU’s offense continues to have trouble moving the ball. However, they may find success versus a terrible Baylor defense that simply cannot keep teams away from pay dirt this year.
Baylor Bears 's Latest Performance :
Baylor has lost three of their last four games. And while the Big 12 crown is out of the question, look for them to finish up strong in their final two games of the year in which to become bowl eligible. Their ability to accomplish this can certainly provide a great ending to a season to where they simply could not stop their opponents from scoring. The defense is allowing teams to score 33 points per game this year while the offense, boasting a 21st ranked passing attack with Brewer under center, have had to play near perfect to get a victory.
After a loss an Iowa State to where Brewer threw for 288 yards along with two scores, the Bears will return home hoping to crank up their passing game once again versus a TCU defense that has been solid on the season yet has struggled in recent matchups in defending both the pass and the run. In fact, the Horned Frogs unit is allowing 35 points per game in their last four outings, overall. Nonetheless, TCU’s defense is ranked in the top 50 in defending the pass, so, this will certainly make this matchup interesting.
How TCU Horned Frogs & Baylor Bears Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
TCU is 2-8 ATS while the OU is 5-5
Baylor is 4-5-1 ATS while the OU is 6-4
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
This matchup will entail two teams looking to get back on track offensively after two terrible outing last weekend. Baylor has the upside in this game due to Brewer and the passing attack, however, Collins has indeed been a bright spot for Baylor despite their offensive struggles all season. The fact is that both defenses are playing just as awful at this time. It is for this reason that this will be a competitive game from the standpoint that there will indeed be points scored from both teams in the matchup.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Baylor -2
My reason for the pick :
I will back Baylor and the points in this contest due to their passing game with Brewer and company. And while their defense is terrible and will certainly give up their fair share of points in this contest, look for the home team to remain in the game as they take advantage of a defense in TCU that has lost much confidence throughout the season in defensing either the pass or run. In all, Baylor will take control of this game over time and pull away late to get the victory.
Totals Selection: Pick: Over 52.5
My reason for the prediction :
With two defenses such as these along with Baylor having a potent passing attack, I will back the over in this contest. The over has been the play in three of the last five home games for Baylor while being he play in in three of the last four games for TCU, overall, look for this to continue on Saturday as both offenses will be in for a solid day at the office.
Betting trends for TCU Horned Frogs:
- Horned Frogs are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Horned Frogs last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Horned Frogs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Betting trends for Baylor Bears :
- Bears are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games in November.
- Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.