UCF Knights vs. USF Bulls Preview, Prediction, Free Pick, 11-23-2018

UCF Knights (11-0) vs USF Bulls (7-4)

Date : 11/23/2018
Time : 4:00 PM
Location : Raymond James Stadium

Pick, Prediction, & Preview:

UCF Knights vs USF Bulls

The USF Bulls return home to Raymond James Stadium for the regular season finale as they will host their cross-state rival in the UCF Knights in an AAC clash, the opening kickoff is slated for 4:00 PM. The USF Bulls have lost 4 straight and will be looking to regroup before the postseason while UCF is still fighting to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff.

UCF Knights 's Latest Performance :

The UCF Knights have continued to win games and are now starting their 2nd straight undefeated season in the face but they have yet to earn much buzz in the College Football Playoff talks despite top teams losing. The Knights put an impressive mark on their resume during senior night as they rolled over the 24th ranked Cincinnati Bearcats 38-13. UCF received another great game out of QB McKenzie Milton as the junior racked up 268 yards and 3 TDs through the air while also contributing a rushing TD. Milton has been stellar all season as he has thrown for over 2577 yards, 24 TDs, and 5 interceptions while also adding in a team-high 9 rushing TDs. The ground game wasn’t as strong as we have seen it this season but it was still effective as they were led by senior RB Taj McGowan as he racked up 50 yards on 6 carries. The Knights have been able to throw 3 RBs into the game for different situations as McGowan has been the power back, McCrae has been a do it all guy, and Killins has been a threat in the passing game. Adrian Killins was able to add 82 yards and 2 TDs through the air while former 5-star recruit Tre Nixon caught 2 passes for 83 yards and a TD. The Knights have not been known as a defensive team by any standard this season but they played well on senior night against Cincinnati. Redshirt sophomore DB Richie Grant has been the leader of this defense all season and he showed why as he led the way with 12 tackles which gives him a team-high 92 tackles on the season. LB Titus Davis had a big game on the pass rush for the Knights as he was able to rack up 3 sacks which gives him 6 on the year.

USF Bulls's Latest Performance :

The USF Bulls started the year off 7-0 and looked like a prime candidate to crash a New Years Six Bowl but we have seen Charlie Strong and company drop 4 straight games in AAC play. USF got off to a hot start last weekend against Temple as they went up 17-0 but they allowed the Owls to score 27 consecutive points. QB Blake Barnett has not looked like the 5-star recruit as we know him and their outing against Temple is another example of that as he threw for only 82 yards and 2 interceptions in what is supposed to be an explosive offense. Barnett has been extremely turnover prone this season as he has thrown 11 interceptions compared to 11 TDs. The ground game is what has kept USF competitive this season especially the former Florida Gator RB Jordan Cronkrite. Cronkrite was able to compile 83 yards and 2 TDs on 17 carries which has extended his season total to 1065 yards and 8 TDs. Johnny Ford has been an effective backup for Cronkrite as he has rushed for 617 yards and 8 TD on the season but he was unable to get much going against Temple as he only gained 58 yards on 14 carries. The Bulls top WR Tyre McCants was held in check all game by the Owls secondary as he was held to only 32 yards on 3 catches. The Bulls defense was solid in the first half as they held Temple to 0 points while racking up sacks and turnovers but things took a turn for the worse in the 2nd half. LB Khalid McGee led the way for the Bulls with 11 tackles while Ronnie Hoggins brought down his 2nd interception of the season.

How UCF Knights & USF Bulls Matchup.

Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:

UCF is 7-3 ATS, 2-1 ATS on the road.

USF is 4-7 ATS, 1-4 ATS at home.

In-Depth Analysis of each team:

UCF ranks 7th in the nation in team scoring as they score an average of 44.2 PPG while USF ranks 41st as they score an average of 32.3 PPG.

UCF ranks 27th in the nation in team defense as they hold opponents to an average of 21.2 PPG while USF ranks 88th as they hold opponents to an average of 31.3 PPG.

Against The Spread Selection: UCF Knights -14

My reason for the pick :

This is a high spread for a rivalry game but this has been two teams heading in completely different directions over the last few weeks. The UCF offense is rolling on all cylinders right now and although USF has a good offense it has looked bad with Barnett back under center. The difference in this matchup is the defenses as UCF clearly has a way better unit than USF. UCF showed the ability to get after the QB last week and force the inexperienced QB into mistakes. I think we see a similar gameplan from the Knights in this matchup as they will shut down the run and force the Bulls to be one dimensional. UCF will pull away late and should win this game by 14.

Betting trends for UCF Knights :

  • UCF is 6-3 ATS after a win this season.

Betting trends for USF Bulls:

  • USF is 2-5 ATS in AAC matchups this season.


I am a sports enthusiast and watch every sport from the NFL to the NHL with everything in between. I have followed sports since I was a young kid and have studied deep into statistics for teams, and players. I am always looking for transactions within sports and find in an interest in every game. Playing every sport growing up has led me to understand every game and look for certain trends and stats.