New Orleans Saints (1-1) vs Atlanta Falcons (1-1)Date : 09/23/2018
Time : 1:00 pm EST
Location : Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons
The New Orleans Saints will travel to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, on Sunday afternoon for a 1 pm EST battle versus NFC South division foe Atlanta Falcons. The Saints would sneak out a slim, 21-18 home win versus the Cleveland Browns on Sunday afternoon, yet, would not cover the spread as 9.5-point favorites with the under being the result with the total being set at 51 points for the game. New Orleans would cover the spread in two of the last four meetings versus the Falcons while their last meeting versus the Falcons on the road resulting in a 20-17 loss on December 7, 2018, while the under was also the play with the total being set at 51.5 points. The Falcons would pick up a 31-24 home win versus the Carolina Panthers on Sunday afternoon as they would cover the spread as 5.5-point favorites while the over would be the play with the total being set at 43.5 points. The underdogs in this matchup is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings amongst these two teams while the Under has been the play in seven of the last nine meetings in Atlanta.
New Orleans Saints's Latest Performance :
The Saints would run into issues on offense versus the Browns on Sunday as they only racked up 275 yards of total offense, which would be 100 yards less than average for the year. The Browns would take a 12-3 lead on a Carlos Hyde touchdown run midway through the third period before Drew Brees would throw two touchdown passes to Michael Thomas to put the home team up by an 18-12 score with 2:44 left in the game. The Browns would hit pay dirt yet again with a Tyrod Taylor to Antonio Calloway touchdown pass to tie the score after the Browns would muff the PAT. Nonetheless, Brees would drive the Saints within Browns territory where Will Lutz would ice the game with a 44-yard field goal to win the game for the Saints with :26 seconds remaining. Brees would end with 243 yards passing for the game while Alvin Camara would rush for 46 yards total while catching 6 passes for 53 yards in the win. Thomas (12 rec, 89 yds, 2 TD’s) and Ted Ginn, Jr (4 rec, 55 yds) would lead the receiving corps for New Orleans and would love to take this momentum for the fifth ranked offense in the NFL into their matchup with Atlanta on Sunday as the Falcons only allowed 218 yards per game, good for 10th in the league, despite giving up 335 yards in the air to the Panthers in their last time out. They will, however, will be missing Keanu Neal who is on injured reserve with a knee injury while cornerback Isiah Oliver is day to day with an ankle injury. The Saints rushing attack could indeed utilize Camara, with Mark Ingram serving suspension, in their next outing as they are only putting up 53 yards per game, thus ranking them dead last, while the falcons are ranked in the bottle half (22nd) in rushing yards allowed per game with 117 yards per outing.
Atlanta Falcons's Latest Performance :
Atlanta would take a 17-10 lead at the half over the Panthers on the strength of two Matt Ryan touchdown passes to Calvin Ridley and Austin Hooper to put the Falcons up for good after the Panthers would get a Graham Gano field goal along with a Cam Newton touchdown pass to Jarius Wright early on. The Falcons would extend their lead to 24-10 early in the third period as Matt Ryan would score a one-yard rushing touchdown, yet, Newton would find Torrey Smith for a three-yard pass to tighten the lead to 24-17 in favor of the home team. Ryan would then score his second rush TD of the night to put the Falcons up 14 points as Newton would throw his third touchdown pass of the night to DJ Moore to make the lead 31-24, thus ending the scoring threat for the Panthers and sealing the victory for the home team. Ryan would end with 272 yards total with an interception while Tevin Coleman would rush for 107 yards on 16 carries while Ito Smith would also chip in 46 yards for Atlanta in the win. Julio Jones (5 rec, 64 yds), Ridley (4 rec, 64 yds), along with Hooper (5 rec, 59 yds) would lead the receiving corps for the Falcons. The Falcons 15th ranked passing attack with Ryan and Jones will now look to their match up versus a Saints defense that is ranked next to last in passing yards allowed with 326 yards per game while its 10th ranked rushing attack with Coleman will look to find some holes versus a defense that allows only 102 yards per game to their opponent. Look for the offense for the Falcons to score some points this week as the Saints are allowing 33 points per game.
How New Orleans Saints & Atlanta Falcons Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Atlanta is 1-1 ATS while the O/U is 1-1
New Orleans is 0-2 ATS while the O/U is 1-1
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
This will be yet another entertaining contest versus the Falcons and Saints, and one to where a win will certainly be pivotal for both teams, particularly, for the Saints. New Orleans have already dropped a division game to Tampa Bay Bucs in week one and will certainly be up to the challenge to avoid another loss. On the other hand, the Falcons would love to continue their play from their recent outing in which to pick up yet another win versus an NFC South opponent. In all, look for both teams, whose offense is their staple, to open up the passing game early in this contest.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3
My reason for the pick :
I will back the Falcons in this matchup as I see them finding ways in which to dominate this game on offense while getting some points on the board early while allowing Coleman and company to grind out a win on the ground for the home team. I really expect this to look much like a shootout early on, however, things will slow down once the running game for Atlanta gets going as they will be able to roll to victory over the Saints, once again, while covering the small spread at home.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 44.5
My reason for the prediction :
Though I feel in my heart that this game will go well over the total set for this game, I will, however, go with the trends which say that this matchup will indeed be an under result as it has been the case in recent meetings. When one really analyzes how both teams have played this year, the Falcons have not hit their stride on offense at this point. And with the Saints getting owned on the line of scrimmage versus the Browns in week two, one can expect the road team to perform much better versus a team that they are very familiar with from an offensive standpoint. On the other hand, the Falcons would give up some late touchdowns in their last time out, however, for the year, is only giving up 21 points to their opponents.
Betting trends for New Orleans Saints:
- Over is 5-0 in Saints last 5 games in September
- Over is 7-0 in Saints last 7 games following a straight up loss
- Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games overall.
Betting trends for Atlanta Falcons:
- Under is 8-0 in Falcons last 8 vs. NFC
- Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 3
- Under is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 vs. NFC South.