San Francisco 49’ers (1-1) vs Kansas City Chiefs (2-0)Date : 09/23/2018
Time : 1:00 pm EST
Location : Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
San Francisco 49’ers vs Kansas City Chiefs
The San Francisco 49’ers seek to extend their winning ways as they will travel to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri, to battle the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon at 1 pm EST for week three NFL action. The Niners would pick up a 30-27 win at home versus the Detroit Lions as they would not cover the six point spread as home favorites while the over of 48.5 was surpassed while the Chiefs were once again winners by a 42-37 score on the road versus the Pittsburgh Steelers as they would cover the 4.5 spread as road dogs while the over was the play with the total being set at 52 points. The home team in this matchup is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings while the Niners would get the 22-17 home win on October 5, 2014, to where they would cover the 4.5 point spread while the under was the play with total runs being set at 43 points for the game.
San Francisco 49’ers's Latest Performance :
The Niners would go into the half with a 13-10 lead, however, would get a Jimmy Garoppolo 11-yard touchdown pass to Garrett Celek along with a 66-yard touchdown run from Matt Breida to put the home team up by a 27-13 score before Robbie Gould would tack on a field goal to make the score 30-13 with 11:21 left in the game. Despite two touchdowns from Matthew Stafford in the final minutes, they were able to come out with the 30-27 victory in week two. Garoppolo would throw for 206 total yards while Breida would have 138 yards on the day while the receiving corps was led by Pierre Garcon and Dante Pettis who would combine for 5 receptions for 92 yards total. In all, they will take their third ranked rushing attack into week three in which to exploit a seventh ranked defense for the Chiefs while also looking to take advantage of a passing defensive unit for KC that is allowing 430 yards per game, dead last in the league. Of course, with the Niners only putting up 196 yards per game in the air, they will certainly look to try the secondary in this game in which to get some scores throughout. Finally, San Fran, only averaging 23 points per game thus far, will be looking to improve upon their scoring altogether as the Chiefs are allowing opponents 33 points per game, overall.
Kansas City Chiefs's Latest Performance :
After a 21-21 halftime tie, the Chiefs would outscore the Steelers 21-16 in the second half thanks to three touchdown passes by Patrick Mahomes (326 yards, 6 TD’s) which would allow the road team to go into Heinz Field in which to get a 42-37-week two win. Of course, Mahomes would be the player of the game, however, Kareem Hunt (18 rushes, 75 yards) along with Sammy Watkins (rush, 31 yards) would lead the rushing attack while Watkins would also have 100 yards receiving for the game along with Travis Kelce (7 rec, 109 yds, 2 TD’s) and Tyreek Hill (5 rec, 90 yds, TD) would also lead the receiving corps in the win. The Chiefs ranked at or nor the top ten in each offensive category thus far in 2018 and will be looking to exploit a defense for the Niners that is allowing close to 400 total yards to their opponents this year. Not surprising, the strength for the Chiefs are their passing attack which averages 289 yards per game as they will match up versus a San Francisco unit that gives up 278 yards per outing to their opponents. Also, look for the Chiefs to get their rushing game going on a unit that is also allowing 107 yards per game along with 26 points per game to their opponents thus far.
How San Francisco 49’ers & Kansas City Chiefs Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Kansas City is 2-0 ATS while the O/U is 2-0
San Francisco is 0-2 ATS while the O/U is 1-1
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Heads are beginning to worry in San Francisco despite the win by their Niners in week two. Their defense has certainly not played up to par while the offense, supposedly the staple of the team, has not been able to be as dominate as one would have imagined when Garrappolo was bought in. Nonetheless, they enter week three with some momentum under their belts as they seek to pick up a win at Arrowhead. The Chiefs, on the other hand, is riding high at this point and will love to make Niner fans even more miserable with a loss on Sunday afternoon.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: San Francisco 49’ers +6
My reason for the pick :
While the Chiefs offense has been unstoppable lately, due to their defense not performing well in any defensive category, I will back the road team as I feel as though six points will certainly be a lot for an experienced Garoppolo and the dangerous weapons that the Niners possess. In fact, San Fran has also allowed a ton of yards to their opponents this year, yet, I happen to think that they will hang around in this contest while also having the chance to win outright.
Totals Selection: Pick: Over 55.5
My reason for the prediction :
With Mahomes and the Chiefs offense being the toast of the league thus far on offense along with their defense giving away chunks of yardage like candy, combined with the fact that the Niners, who have struggled on offense, yet, possesses talent on offense as well, I will back the over in this matchup. The fact is that while Mahomes may have performed very well lately, Garoppolo will look for more consistency out of his offense. What better way to do this against one of the worse defenses in the league?
Betting trends for San Francisco 49’ers:
- 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 3
- Under is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 road games
- Under is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Betting trends for Kansas City Chiefs:
- Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September
- Chiefs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
- Chiefs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 3.