Buffalo Bills (1-2) vs Green Bay Packers (1-1-1)Date : 09/30/2018
Time : 1:00 pm EST
Location : Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers
The AFC East will battle the NFC North as the Buffalo Bills will travel to Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin, for a showdown with the Green Bay Packers on Sunday afternoon at 1 pm EST. In their last outing, the Packers fell on the road to the Washington Redskins by a 31-17 score as they were not able to recover from a dismal first half to where they would end up going into halftime down 28-10 en route to their first loss of the year. The Bills, on the other hand, gained some much-needed confidence on both sides of the ball as they picked up a 27-6 road victory over the Minnesota Vikings as Josh Allen would be the catalyst for two touchdowns early on to spark the win. Green Bay would fall on the road to the Bills on December 14, 2014 by a 21-13 score as the Bills would pick up a late safety to put the game out of reach for Rodgers and the Packer offense. The home team covered as 3.5 home underdogs while the under was the play with the total being set at 49.5 points for the contest.
Buffalo Bills's Latest Performance :
Josh Allen (196 yards) would be responsible for a touchdown pass along with two rushing scores in a game where he would put his team up 24-0 before Kirk Cousins would find Kyle Rudolph for the first and only score for the home team last Sunday. And while the Vikings and Bills each had 292 total yards for the game, the Bills would get four sacks in the game along with recover two fumbles in the win. Chris Ivory was also a pivotal piece in the win as he rushed for 70 yards while also having 70 yards receiving in the win for the Bills, who have struggled on offense thus far in the season prior to his matchup. They may find much more success on the road versus the Packers who are 26th and 22nd in rushing and passing defense for the year. Also, they may be able to put more points on the board with the Packers allowing 27 points per game to their opponents, a far cry from the 16.7 points the Bills have been allowed to put up versus the opponents, recently. LeSean McCoy continues to deal with a rib injury for the Bills while DE Mohamed Wilkerson and LB Nick Perry are day to day with head and ankle injuries for Green Bay.
Green Bay Packers 's Latest Performance :
Alex Smith threw two touchdown passes in the first half while Adrian Peterson would also punish the Packer defense with another two scores as the Redskins would rack up 166 rushing along with 220 yards passing in their home win over the Packers last Sunday. Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, finished with 265 yards along with two scores, yet, his rushing game would only put up 100 yards on the day as Aaron Jones led the attack with 42 yards on six carries while Geronimo Allison and Davante Adams would combine for 9 receptions for 128 yards while both had a TD apiece. The Packers would allow the Skins defense to sack Rodgers four times while the offense would fumble once in the game while the Packers would drop their scoring per game average to 23.3 for the season. They look to find success versus the Bills that are allowing 28 points per game to their opponents, yet, are ranked 11th in total defense in allowing 337 yards per game. DT Shaq Lawson continues to sit out for Buffalo’s defense and is uncertain if he will play in this matchup while RT and RG Justin McCray and Bryan Bulaga are each day to day with shoulder and back injuries.
How Buffalo Bills & Green Bay Packers Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Buffalo is 1-2 ATS while the O/U is 2-1
Green Bay is 1-2 ATS while the O/U is 3-0
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
The Green Bay offense is struggling due to inconsistency and injuries up front. With that being the case, look for the Bills to bring the pressure throughout this game on Rodgers and company as they were certainly able to confuse Cousins and the Vikings in their last outing. Also, the Bills are ranked in the top 20 on defense in pass and rush yards allowed, 19th and 5th respectively, as the Packers will find it difficult to move the ball in this matchup. Nonetheless, while Allen and the offense would put up some scores versus Minnesota, they are only putting up 17 points per game for the season; Yet, the Packers are giving up big plays in both the rushing and passing attacks of their opponents, so, Buffalo may also find success in those areas as well.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Buffalo Bills +10.5
My reason for the pick :
This spread may be a bit high in my opinion since Buffalo is on a high after winning their first game of the season along with a stout defense that is built to keep them in games. Of course, Allen has been inconsistent, yet, showed promise versus the Vikings as the offense for the Bills will look to exploit a shaky defense for Green Bay. In all, I will back the Bills with the plus points on the road in that they have the much better defense while the offense for the Packers continues to sputter at critical times in the game, despite having Rodgers at the helm.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 44.5
My reason for the prediction :
Again, the Bills defense played solidly in their last outing while the Packer offense was very lackluster in allowing some huge sacks during their outing with Washington. Look for the defense for the home team to play a bit better in this outing as they will look to pressure Allen in the pocket in hopes of minimizing their opportunities to score points. In all, look for this matchup to be a defensive minded game for the most part, however, with Rodgers, one can also expect the Packers to score points when needed.
Betting trends for Buffalo Bills:
- Buffalo is 8-12-3 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo’s last 6 games on the road
- Buffalo is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Green Bay
Betting trends for Green Bay Packers :
- Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay’s last 9 games
- Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
- Green Bay is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo