Houston Texans (0-3) vs Indianapolis Colts (1-2)Date : 09/30/2018
Time : 1:00 pm EST
Location : Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
An AFC South showdown versus the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts will take place at Lucas Oil stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana, on Sunday afternoon at 1 pm EST. These two teams met on December 31, 2017 at Lucas Oil Stadium as the Colts picked up the 22-13 win behind 146 rush yards by the home team en route to the victory. The Colts would cover the spread as 5.5 home favorites while the under was the result with the total being set at 42 points for the contest. In their last outing, the Texans could not recover from a terrible first half to where they would allow 20 points to the NY Giants on a Saquan Barkley rushing touchdown along with an Eli Manning touchdown pass to Rhett Ellison en route to the 27-22 home loss. The Colts played a tight game on the road versus the Eagles last Sunday as they would suffer the 20-16 loss while shooting themselves in the foot with three fumbles for the game. Nonetheless, they look to get back on track versus a Houston team that has performed terribly on defense thus far in the season.
Houston Texans's Latest Performance :
The Texans are looking to get into the win column in 2018 as they could get nothing going on offense for three quarters in their matchup versus the Giants last Sunday. The would, however, get a score in the final period with two touchdown passes by Deshawn Watson (385 yards, INT) to Will Fuller (5 rec, 101 yds, TD) and Lamar Miller as they dropped another game for the season. Watson also led the rushing attack with 36 yards for the home team as the Texans out-gained the Giants in collecting 427 total yards in the loss; Yet, they had two turnovers while allowing three sacks to the Giants defense as well. JJ Watt also had three sacks for the Texans defensive unit while Tyron Mattheu led the unit in tackles with seven for the game. Nonetheless, Eli Manning (297 yards, 2 TD’s), Saquon Barkley (17 rushes, 82 yards, TD), and Odell Beckham Jr (9 receptions, 109 yards) would come up big for the Giants in the win.
Indianapolis Colts's Latest Performance :
The Colts went into the half down 10-7 to the Eagles last Sunday and were outscored 10-9 in the second half as they would suffer the week three loss. Andrew Luck threw for 164 yards along with a TD, however, they would allow two sacks to Derek Barnett along with Fletcher Cox. An indication as to how dismal the rushing game was in this matchup would be that Luck would lead the rushing attack with 33 yards for the game while TY Hilton (5 rec, 50 yds) and Ryan Grant (3 rec, 35 yds, TD) would lead the receiving corps in defeat. The Colts could not capitalize on several fumbles by the Eagles in this game as they were only held to 19:40 minutes of possession time in the matchup. With Houston ranking in the bottom half of the league in passing along with rushing yards allowed, the Colts may indeed have a solid outing on Sunday; However, RT Joe Haig is day to day with a hip injury while RB Marlon Mack is currently hampered by a foot injury. Darius Leonard had 2 sacks for the Colts defense in the game while Clayton Geathers led the unit in tackles with 10 for the game. DT Hasaan Ridgeway is yet to return from his calf injury that has keep him out for the past two weeks.
How Houston Texans & Indianapolis Colts Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Houston is 0-3 ATS while the O/U is 1-2
Indianapolis is 2-1 ATS while the O/U is 1-2
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Both these teams could desperately use a win on Sunday as the Colts have struggled in every offensive category for the season while averaging only 20 points per game (21st). the Texans have fared much better in this area as they are ranked 8th in total yards per game with 396 yards while averaging just 19 points per outing (22nd). Finally, both defenses have been middle of the road as the Texans are allowing 24.7 points per game to their opponents while the Colts give up 21 points per outing. Look for the Texans to rely on their running game in this contest as the Colts are giving up too many yards on the ground while Watson and company must be able to step up to provide more offensive efficiency at critical points in the game. Luck and the Colts will look to regain their running game that is only putting up 82 yards per contest versus a Texans defense ranked 20th in the NFL in allowing 112 yards per game while also looking to exploit a defensive secondary that gives up 238 yards in the air to their opponents.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Indianapolis colts -2.5
My reason for the pick :
While the Texans have a much better offense from a statistical standpoint, I will back the Colts at home in this matchup as they really need to hunker down at this point in the season after suffering from lack of a running game since the start of the regular season. Also, Luck and company will look to find creases within the Texans’ defensive secondary that has been known to give up big plays. While this will be a low scoring matchup due to both teams finding it hard to convert great field position into scores lately, I feel as though the Colts will be able to cover the small spread at home versus a Texans defense that is shaky in the back end.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 47.5
My reason for the prediction :
Again, while Luck will find some success in the passing game in this matchup, I see this game as being low scoring and one to where both teams will look to get their running game back on track. As state, the Colts are averaging on 82 yards per game on the ground while Houston is ranked in the top ten in rushing offense with 125 yards per game. With that being said, both rushing attacks will fuel these teams on Sunday early on while the offenses will benefit from challenging two inconsistent defenses that can (and will) give up big plays from time to time. In all, I will back the under in this contest as Houston and Indy has struggled in their offensive set and I see this trend continuing in week four.
Betting trends for Houston Texans:
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games on the road
- Houston is 2-7-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Indianapolis
Betting trends for Indianapolis Colts:
- Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Indianapolis’s last 11 games
- Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
- Indianapolis is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Houston