Miami Dolphins (3-0) vs New England Patriots (1-2)Date : 09/30/2018
Time : 1:00 pm EST
Location : Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Massachussetts
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots
The Miami Dolphins and the New England Patriots will get together for an AFC East showdown at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts, on Sunday afternoon at 1 pm EST in what will be their first matchup of the 2018 campaign. In their last outing, the Dolphins picked up a 28-20 home win over the Oakland Raiders as they got another three touchdowns from Ryan Tannehill in the win while the Patriots would suffer their second straight loss in a 26-10 road loss to the Detroit Tigers as they would only have 120 passing yards versus a highly touted pass defense for Detroit. On December 11, 2017, the Dolphins would pick up the 27-20 win over the Patriots as they covered as 10.5-point home underdogs while the under was the play with the total being set at 48 points for the game. In this game, the Patriots were held to only 25 yards rushing along with 223 yards in the air while the Dolphins picked up 120 yards on the ground along with 242 yards passing in the win.
Miami Dolphins 's Latest Performance :
The Dolphins were dismal in the running game versus a stout Raiders defense, however, Ryan Tannehill would throw for 289 yards along with three touchdown passes in their win last Sunday. The Dolphins would also get 144 return yards in the win. Two Tannehill pass scores after the Raiders would go up 17-14 late in the third period allowed the home team to regain control of the game on their way to picking up their third straight win of the season. The defense would collect three sacks by Cameron Wake, Vontae Taylor, and William Hayes while Xavien Howard got his second interception of the year in the victory. Offensively, the Dolphins are ranked 23rd in the league in total yards per game with 324 yards, yet, are 11th in the league in points scored per outing with 25 points per. They will face a Patriots defense that is ranked in the bottom tier in every defensive category while looking to improve upon these numbers versus a team that they have struggled against in the past.
New England Patriots's Latest Performance :
Aside from Tom Brady having only 133 yards total in their loss versus Detroit last Sunday, he also had a pick in the game while the offense allowed two sacks in the contest as well. New England’s defense allowed 159 rushing yards to the Lions while Matthew Stafford threw for 262 yards along with two scores in the game. Sony Michel led the rushing attack with 50 yards while Rob Gronkowski had 51 yards on four receptions in the loss. The performance was a huge hit to the rankings for the Patriots as they are now ranked 25th in the league in total yards per game with 300 yards while their passing attack fell to 26th in the NFL with 202-yard average per game. Miami is ranked 6th in total points allowed this season with 17.3 points per game and one could conclude that the Patriots will once again have another difficult week in scoring on offense.
How Miami Dolphins & New England Patriots Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Miami is 3-0 ATS while the O/U is 2-1
New England is 1-2 ATS while the O/U is 1-2
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Look for Tannehill and their 19th ranked passing attack to exploit the 24th ranked pass defense for the Patriots as they have given up too many big plays thus far in the season. Also, when considering the Dolphins have had success in facing the Patriots in the past, one must conclude that they can have a decent day on the offensive end versus New England on Sunday. Furthermore, with Brady and the offense struggling to find some consistency for their passing game, Miami could very well go into Gillette and get a win to go 4-0 on the season this weekend.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Miami Dolphins +7.5
My reason for the pick :
While the Patriots will be focused on getting back into the win column and may indeed come out with a slim victory in this contest, I will back the road team in this instance in that the Dolphins have played consistently this season both at home and on the road. And while going on the road to face the Patriots will be a challenge, I happen to believe that the Dolphins will play well enough to keep this contest close throughout. In all, take Miami to gain some yards in their running game versus a terrible Patriots run defense while Tannehill will once again make the reads needed in which to keep the Dolphins in the game.
Totals Selection: Pick: Over (off)
My reason for the prediction :
I will go with the over in this matchup as Tannehill has proven himself to be a leader for this Dolphins squad and will certainly look forward to challenging a shaky defensive secondary for the patriots. Brady, on the other hand, will prepare his receivers for this matchup versus the 29th ranked pass defense in the league to put some scores on the board as well. In all, look for both teams to take advantage of scoring opportunities in this contest as the over will be the strong play.
Betting trends for Miami Dolphins :
- Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami’s last 6 games on the road
- Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England
- Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
Betting trends for New England Patriots:
- New England is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
- New England is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 12 of New England’s last 18 games
- New England is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
- New England is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami