Indianapolis Colts (1-3) vs New England Patriots (2-2)Date : 10/04/2018
Time : 8:20 pm EST
Location : Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Massachussetts
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots
The Indianapolis Colts will travel to Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts, to battle the New England Patriots for a week five AFC showdown on Thursday night at 8:20 pm EST. These two teams last met on October 18, 2015 when the Patriots picked up the 34-27 road win as they were not able to cover the spread as 8.5 home favorites while the over was the play with the total being set at 54 points for the game. Tom Brady and Andrew Luck both threw for over 300 yards along with three TD’s in the contest as the Patriots were able to get the victory despite being outscored 14-6 in the second half. New England also picked up a win in week four versus the Miami Dolphins by a 38-7 score as they also covered the 6.5 point spread as home favorites. The Colts, on the other hand, lost at home in overtime to the Houston Texas on Sunday as Ka’imi Fairbairn kicked a 37-yard field goal as time expired as the Colts lost their second straight game by a 37-34 score.
Indianapolis Colts 's Latest Performance :
The Colts battled back versus the Texans after being down 21-10 at the half to tie the game with an Andrew Luck nine-yard strike to Nyheim Hines at the :45 seconds mark of the final period, thus forcing overtime. After trading field goals, the Colts got a 37-yard field goal from their kicker, Ka’imi Fairbairn, to seal the week four victory for Houston, their first win of the season. Andrew Luck was on fire with 464 yards along with four touchdown passes while the rushing attack only racked up 41 yards for the game with Jordan Wilkins only mustering 18 yards on eight carries. TY Hilton (4 rec, 115 yds) and Chester Rodgers (8 rec, 85 yds) both led the receiving corps as the Colts were four of four inside the red zone for the game, yet, lost two of four fumbles while having 85 yards in penalties in the loss. TY Hilton is doubtful versus the Patriots with a hamstring injury. On the other hand, their defense also allowed a ton of passing yards to DeShawn Watson as he threw for 375 for the day along with two touchdown passes and a pick in the win while also having 41 yards rushing for an attack that put in 119 yards on the ground on the Colts 17th ranked rushing defense. Linebacker Darius Moore (ankle) is questionable for the defensive unit due to injuries while defensive lineman Hassan Ridgeway continues to be questionable for this matchup with a calf injury. Furthermore, cornerback Kenny Moore II continues to be in concussion protocol with no timetable for his return as the 19th ranked pass defense for Indy continues to struggle.
New England Patriots's Latest Performance :
Tom Brady threw three touchdown passes in the first half to James White, Cordelle Patterson, along with Phillip Dorsett as the Patriots took a 24-0 lead at the half over the Miami Dolphins on their way to a huge AFC East division win on Sunday. Brady ended the day with 274 yards along with two interceptions while the rushing attack was unstoppable in racking up 175 total yards on the ground as Sony Michel obtained 112 yards along with a touchdown run in the contest. White led the team in receiving yards with 68 yards total as the new England offense did not allow a sack in the game while holding the ball for 36: 22 minutes in the game. Rob Gronkowski, however, is questionable for this game with an ankle injury yet Julian Edelman will make his debut versus the Colts as he will return from suspension for PED use. The 12th ranked defense in total yards in the Patriots only allowed 172 yards total to the Dolphins as they could only muster 56 yards on the ground along with 112 yards passing in the loss. The unit may suffer, however, as defensive lineman Adam Butler (leg) and Geneo Grissom (ankle) will both be questionable versus the Colts with injuries. Linebacker Elandon Roberts (undisclosed) along with corner back Eric Rowe (groin) will also be questionable for Thursday’s matchup.
How Indianapolis Colts & New England Patriots Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
The Patriots picked up a solid win over their division foe Miami in Foxboro last Sunday and will certainly look to continue their momentum versus a pass defense that has struggled this season, as stated. The Colts had some great things happen in their last outing such as Luck seemingly getting back to form in their passing attack as they are currently ranked 29th in the league in averaging just 265 yards per outing. They will have difficulties this week, however, as the Patriots are ranked in the top ten in the NFL is pass defense while their run defense can certainly be exploited as they allow 122 yards per game to their opponents. Nonetheless, the run game has not been a strong point for the Colts as they put up only 72 yards per game, good for only 29th in the league. In all, this will be an interesting matchup to where there may indeed be some scored put up throughout.
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
New England is 2-2 ATS while the O/U is 1-3
Indianapolis is 2-2 ATS while the O/U is 2-2
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: New England Patriots -10
My reason for the pick :
As stated, the Patriots should be hyped to play on a short week after their convincing win over Miami last Sunday and will certainly look to take advantage of Indianapolis’s’ weak pass defense along with get their 12th ranked running game back on track versus a Colts defense that allowed 108 yards per game to their opponents. The Patriots have had success versus Luck and the Colts in the past as this trend will continue in what I expect to be a high scoring game to where the home team will score throughout; Yet, the Colts will also put up some points as well. Nonetheless, New England will indeed cover the spread as Edelman will be back in the lineup and despite Gronk potentially being a no go, look for them to continue their momentum on Thursday versus an Indy team that can only pass the ball at this point, yet, will be without Luck’s favorite target in Hilton.
Totals Selection: Pick: Over 53
My reason for the prediction :
I will back the over in this matchup as the Colts will attempt to loosen the stellar pass defense for the Patriots throughout, however, they will also be looking to take advantage of the Patriots up front as their defense has not defended the run very well at all thus far in the season. The Patriots and Brady will find their spots versus a struggling defensive secondary for the Colts in this matchup as the over will certainly be the play in the end. Finally, look for Michel to have another solid game for the Patriots rushing attack as well with the Colts reeling up front from injuries.
Betting trends for Indianapolis Colts :
- IND is 5-5 ATS in last 10 road games
- IND is 1-3 ATS in last 4 games after a home loss ATS
- The Under is 6-4 in IND’s last 10 road games
Betting trends for New England Patriots:
- NE is 8-1 ATS in last 9 home games
- NE is 12-5 ATS in last 17 games
- The Under is 8-5 in NE’s last 13 games