Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2) vs Atlanta Falcons (1-4)Date : 10/14/2018
Time : 1:00 pm EST
Location : Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will travel to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, to face a reeling Atlanta Falcons squad that lost its third straight contest in week four beginning at 1 pm EST. The once high powered offense for the Bucs are now looking as if they are having difficulties scoring in losing by a 48-10 score on the road versus the Chicago Bears last Sunday as their offense gained just a tad over 300 yards for the game. The Falcons also possesses a dangerous offense, yet, would fall on the road to the struggling Pittsburgh Steelers by a 41-17 score. The over has been the play in four of the last five matchups for this NFC South matchup while the Favorite is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings between these two teams. Atlanta has also won the last two games versus Tampa Bay by a combined average of 8.5 points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers's Latest Performance :
Tampa Bay was also destroyed by the Chicago Bears in their last outing as Jameis Winston, in his first game back from suspension, threw two interceptions while getting sacked four times along with ranking up 99 yards in penalties in defeat. They also went only one for three inside the red zone while having only 16 first downs for the game compared to 28 for the Bears. Winston threw for 145 yards and a score while Ryan Fitzpatrick also received some time under center as he ended with 126 yards along with a pick. Mitch Trubisky outplayed them both as he torched the last place Bucs defensive secondary for 354 yards along with a whopping six touchdown passes. The rush defense for the Bucs have been stout all season, yet, gave up 139 yards on the ground in this game with 53 belonging to Trubisky while Tarik Cohen also rushed for 53 yards on 13 carries along with catching seven passes for 121 yards and a score. DeSean Jackson led the Bucs in receiving with 112 yards on five catches as the number one passing attack in the league was manhandled by a Bears defense that entered the game first in rush defense, third in yards allowed, and third in points scored.
Atlanta Falcons's Latest Performance :
The Falcons were blitzed in the second half by a 28-7 score as the Steelers limited them to only 62 yards on the ground along with 262 yards passing for the game. Most importantly, they collected six sacks in the contest while the Falcons lost a fumble while also having 75 yards in penalties. Yes, it was a messy game for the road team, yet Matt Ryan threw for 285 yards and a score to Mohammad Sanu that put the Falcons on the board early to make the score 13-7 in favor of the Steelers. On the other hand, the shaky Falcons run defense allowed 131 rushing yards to Pittsburgh while Ben Roethlisberger threw for 250 yards, three touchdowns, along with one interception in the win as they would go four for five inside the red zone. Sanu had four receptions and 73 yards on the day while Julio Jones only have five receptions for 62 yards total. I happen to feel as though the Falcons passing game is not as potent as it should be due to the inability to run the football effectively. Without this type of ability, teams are simply blitzing Ryan in which to speed up his decision-making abilities. They will now face a Tampa Bay team that is 4th in the league in stopping the run in allowing just 88 yards per game; Unfortunately, Matt Ryan may find himself on the injured list with an undisclosed injury as there is no word as to whether he will play versus the Bucs.
How Tampa Bay Buccaneers & Atlanta Falcons Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Tampa Bay is 2-2 ATS while the OU is 4-0
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS while the OU is 4-1
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
This will be an important NFC South matchup for both these teams. As stated, both are reeling while the Falcons will look to get back on track beginning with utilizing their powerful passing attack. However, they will need help from their offensive line in creating space for Freeman and their rushing game. On the other hand, Winston will be attempting to work his way back to top form after returning from suspension. He should have some success with the Falcons playing so horribly both in the pass and run this season. Of course, Ryan will be facing off versus a Bucs defensive backfield that allows 358 yards per game.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3.5
My reason for the pick :
I will give the edge to Atlanta in this matchup as I happen to believe that they are much better at home than on the road. In other words, despite the Falcons only being 1-2 at home this year, they average 36 points per game at Mercedes Benz Stadium while only putting up an average of 14.5 points on the road. Of course, both defenses are awful, however, the offenses for both teams will take center stage in this contest as Ryan will have a solid outing versus the worst pass secondary in the league.
Totals Selection: Pick: Over 57.5
My reason for the prediction :
As stated, the over has been the call in recent matchups versus these two teams while it has also been the play in eight of the nine games for both teams in 2018. Look for this trend to continue as both defenses will give up some points in this game while Winston and Ryan will indeed go back and forth as they will sling the ball all over the field in the meantime. In all, I will back the over in this contest as I can see this as a matchup to where the scoreboard will light up early and often.
Betting trends for Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
- Over is 5-0 in Buccaneers last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC South.
Betting trends for Atlanta Falcons:
- Over is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
- Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
- Under is 10-2 in Falcons last 12 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.