Miami Dolphins (4-3) vs Houston Texans (4-3)Date : 10/25/2018
Time : 8:20 pm EST
Location : NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans
The Miami Dolphins will travel to NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas, to battle the Houston Texans on Thursday night at 8:20 pm EST. The Texans are coming off a 21-7 road win over the slumping Jacksonville Jaguars last Sunday as Deshaun Watson threw a touchdown pass while also throwing for only 139 yards as the Texans won their fourth game in a row. The Miami Dolphins lost three out of four games as they suffered a 32-21 home loss to the Detroit Lions in their last time out as the defense allowed 248 rushing yards to the visitors while Matt Stafford threw for 217 yards along with two TD’s in the win. The last time these two teams met was on October 25, 2015 as the Dolphins picked up the 44-26 home win as they covered as 4.5-point favorites.
Miami Dolphins's Latest Performance :
Miami, on the other hand, has struggled in their last four games after beginning the season 3-0. Since their stellar start, the Dolphins are averaging 19 points per game while their defense has allowed 31 points per game during this time. They are also 1-3 ATS in their last four while not covering in their last outing when they were blasted by the Lions at home as Kerryon Johnson had a monster game with 158 yards on 19 carries for the contest. Stafford threw for two touchdown passes to Michael Roberts while the offense was also efficient inside the red zone in going three for six. The defense for the Dolphins collected four sacks along, however, while the rushing attack for Miami garnered 107 yards in the contest with Kenyon Drake ending the game with 72 yards and a score. Brock Osweiler, continuing to fill in for Ryan Tannehill with a shoulder injury, threw for 238 yards along with two TD passes in the loss.
Houston Texans's Latest Performance :
The Houston Texans are on a roll as they are finding ways in which to win close games. During their current streak, the offense is only putting up 24 points while the team has won their last four games by an average of 6.5 points per win. The defense especially played well versus a reeling Jacksonville team in their last outing as they held the offense for the Jags scoreless until the third quarter until TJ Yeldon scored on a six yard touchdown pass from Cody Kessler who became the go to guy after Blake Bortles made some early miscues, with 2 minutes remaining in the quarter. The defense collected four sacks along with three total turnovers for the game while the offense for the Texans racked up 141 yards led by Lamar Miller who had 100 yards and a score on 22 carries. As stated Watson had a touchdown pass on the night as well as the Texans moved to first place within the AFC South with the victory.
How Miami Dolphins & Houston Texans Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Houston is 2-5 ATS while the OU is 2-5
Miami is 4-3 ATS while the OU is 4-3
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
The Texans’ defense has really played well lately as they are putting the clamps on opposing offenses while continuing to rank in the top ten in total yards allowed (9th), total point per game allowed, along with rushing yards (8th in each category). And while their offense may not be the most efficient team within the red zone, for example, Watson and company are ranked in the top 15 in the league in passing yards (258) along with rushing yards (114). The Dolphins have had the same problems on offense lately, however, they have not been able to rely on their defense as much as the unit is allowing 405 yards per game. The offense is ranked 18th in rushing in putting up 107 yards per outing and it will be interesting to see how they fare versus a Texans team that has been stout recently in preventing teams to gain any confidence on the ground.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Houston Texans -7.5
My reason for the pick :
As stated, Houston has had problems scoring lately, however, have really been able to rely on their defense to keep games close. Also, they are average ATS (2-2) during their current streak of play while the Dolphins are 1—3 ATS during their awful stretch. With the being the case, I will back the Texans in this matchup as I believe that the Dolphins are simply not in sync on either side of the ball. Combine this with the fact that they are winless in their last two road games while being defeated by ten points or more in each contest, Houston will indeed play well in this matchup while covering the spread.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 44.5
My reason for the prediction :
The under has been the play in all three of Miami’s road games this year while it has also been the result in three straight for the Texans. It is for this reason that I will back the under as the strong play in this matchup on Thursday night. Also, I have stated how solid the Houston defense has been recently and with Osweiler continuing to run the show under center in place of Tannehill, look for Miami to continue their inconsistency. Furthermore, it has become the norm for Houston to score the bare minimal in terms of points while allowing their defense to stifle opposing offenses over the course of the game to get the victory.
Betting trends for Miami Dolphins:
- Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 road games.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Dolphins last 10 Thursday games.
Betting trends for Houston Texans:
- Under is 5-0 in Texans last 5 games following an ATS win.
- Under is 4-0 in Texans last 4 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Texans last 5 games following a straight up win.