New England Patriots (5-2) vs Buffalo Bills (2-5)Date : 10/29/2018
Time : 8:15 pm EST
Location : New Era Field, Buffalo, New York
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
The New England Patriots will travel to New Era Field in Buffalo, New York, to face division foe Buffalo Bills on Monday night at 8:15 pm EST. The Patriots have won four straight games with their last victory coming on the road versus the Bears as they rallied for a 38-31 win as Tom Brady threw three touchdown passes in the win. On the other hand, the Bills fell on the road to the Indianapolis Colts by a 37-5 score as their offense was terrible in turning the ball over five times while allowing two sacks on the day. These teams last met on December 24, 2017 as the Patriots picked up a 37-16 home win while covering as 11-point favorites in the matchup. New England is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in Buffalo.
New England Patriots's Latest Performance :
New England is on an entirely different plane as they have put up at least 38 points per game in their last four games while its defense has allowed 25 points to their opponents. The Pats, however, are 1-2 on the road this season while going 1-2 ATS. Of course, they have dominated Buffalo in the past and will certainly look to put up some huge numbers on offense on a team that cannot seem to stop the other team from scoring during their atrocious stretch. The Patriots found themselves struggling a bit versus the Bears in their last outing, however, they were sparked by a 95-yard kickoff return by Cordelle Patterson that tightened the lead to 17-14 in favor of the Bears. Kyle Van Noy also scored for the special teams as he scored on a 29-yard blocked punt return for New England to put the Pats up 31-24 late in the third quarter. From there, Tom Brady threw a two-yard touchdown pass to James White that put New England up by two touchdowns as they ultimately picked up the hard-fought win. Mitch Trubisky threw for 333 yards along with two TD’s along with a rush touchdown in the loss for the Bears.
Buffalo Bills 's Latest Performance :
Buffalo’s struggles continue as they have lost three of their last four games while their offense hit a new low in their last outing by scoring just five points. In turn, they allowed the Colts to score 37 as the Bills lost their third straight road game. Derek Anderson was called up to run the offense in place of Josh Allen, however, the results were similar as he ended with 175 yards along with three interceptions in the loss. The team was only able to garner 303 yards of total offense in the contest as Kelvin Benjamin (4 rec, 71 yards) and Chris Ivory (16 rushes, 81 yards) led the receiving and rushing corps for Buffalo. On the other hand, its defense allowed four touchdowns to Andrew Luck while Marlin Mack also posted 126 yards and a touchdown on 16 rushes for the game. For the season, the Bills are averaging 11.6 points per game while the defense is allowing 25 points. However, in their last two games, Buffalo has posted only 18 points combined while the defense has allowed 57 points total.
How New England Patriots & Buffalo Bills Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
New England is 4-3 ATS while the OU is 4-3
Buffalo is 3-4 ATS while the OU is 2-5
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
As stated, the Patriots have dominated this series in recent matchups. And while I cannot see any angle for Buffalo that will allow them to somehow cover or pick up a win in this contest, I will say that the Bills are indeed ranked 4th in the league in total yards allowed (321) along with passing yards allowed (210). In other words, they can somehow challenge the Patriots passing game in that respect; However, New England comes into this game really clicking on offense, so, it will not be an easy task to accomplish for the Bills. In all, the Patriots are ranked in the top 15 in each major offensive category and certainly plan to exploit Buffalo in every way in this matchup in which to continue their recent success.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: New England Patriots -14
My reason for the pick :
Look for the Patriots to cover the spread in this contest due to their ability set up the pass by running the ball effectively, and vice versa. In other words, New England’s offense will continue its balanced attack while taking control of the trenches in which to pick up another huge division win over the Bills on Monday night. And while the Pats defense has not been stellar at all this year, with the way in which the Bills are playing now on offense, expect the road team to play on another level versus a struggling offensive team that continues to have issues that originate at the quarterback position.
Totals Selection: Pick: Over 44
My reason for the prediction :
Look for the over to be the play in this matchup as this has been the case in recent matchups amongst these two squads. As stated, New England comes into this contest averaging well over 30 points per game and will be looking to resume their consistency on a Buffalo defense that has played much better than their offense, yet, spends too much time on the field. With that being the case, Brady and company will indeed wear down this defense as the game wears on, thus allowing the score to balloon as a result.
Betting trends for New England Patriots:
- Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 8.
- Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on turf.
- Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Betting trends for Buffalo Bills :
- Under is 5-0 in Bills last 5 games overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Bills last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Bills last 4 games in Week 8.