Green Bay Packers (3-3-1) vs New England Patriots (5-2)Date : 11/04/2018
Time : 8:20 pm EST
Location : Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Massachussetts
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots
On Sunday night NFL action, the Green Bay Packers will get together with the New England Patriots for a showdown at 8:20 pm EST at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts. The Packers are coming off a heartbreaking 29-27 loss to the Rams to where they were doomed by a 27-yard field goal with 2:05 minutes remaining after taking a 27-26 lead. The Patriots continued their stellar play recently by picking up a 25-6 road win thanks to a dominating defensive display for the Patriots along with 324 yards from Tom Brady. These teams last met on November 30, 2014 as the Packers picked up the 26-21 home win as Aaron Rodgers out-dueled Tom Brady as he racked up 368 yards along with two passing TD’s compared to 245 yards and two scores for Brady. Furthermore, despite allowing three sacks to the Patriots while allowing the road team to go 3-3 inside the red zone, the Packers were able to collect 130 yards in this contest compared to 84 for New England. Finally, the Packers had four huge field goals by Mason Crosby, with his last putting the Packers up by five points with 8 minutes remaining in the game.
Green Bay Packers's Latest Performance :
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were so close to unseating the Rams as the only undefeated team in the league last Sunday as they jumped out to a 10-0 lead before the home team regained their footing in taking a 23-13 lead late in the third period. Nonetheless, Aaron Jones (86 yards, TD) along with Rodgers (286 yards, TD) bought Green Bay back by scoring on a touchdown run as well as a TD pass to Marquez Valdez Scantling to give the Packers the lead with 8:50 remaining in the game. The Rams would then seal the game with a huge 34 yarder from Greg Zuerlein for the final score of the day.
Jared Goff ended the game with 295 yards along with three TD’s while Todd Gurley III finished with 114 yards in the game while also racking up 81 yards receiving with a pass TD. Devonte Adams led the receiving corps for the Packers with five catches for 133 yards in the game. Green Bay has lost two of their last three games as their defenses allowed 30 points per game, six points less than what they are allowing in 2018. They must be able to cut down on mental breakdowns on the defensive end versus a Patriots team that enters the matchup clicking both on offense as well as defense.
New England Patriots's Latest Performance :
Tom Brady led the Patriots with 324 yards total with Julian Edelman having 104 yards on nine receptions as the Patriots picked up their fifth straight win. New England also racked up 105 return yards for the game while Devin McCourty picked off Bills’ Derek Anderson, who threw for 290 yards, for a 94-yard pick six to seal the victory in the final period for the Patriots. The rush defense for the Patriots was stout in allowing just 46 yards on the ground with Chris Ivory having 34 yards on six rushes while LeShon McCoy led the team in receiving with 82 yards on six receptions.
New England is now two full games ahead of the second-place team in Miami while their 25-point output was their lowest in five games as the Patriots have scored 35 points or more in four of their last five outings. James White scored yet again for New England in their last victory and leads the team with 8 total touchdowns while Brady, despite not having TD pass in a game for the first time this season, has 10 TD passes along with five INT’s in his last five outings.
How Green Bay Packers & New England Patriots Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Green Bay is 2-4 ATS while the OU is 5-1
New England is 4-3 ATS while the OU is 4-3
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
The Packers will certainly be looking to get back on the winning track after they lost a huge game on the road to the Rams in their last time out. With the Patriots struggling to defend the pass these days, expect for Rodgers and company to have a solid day in the passing attack. However, New England will also be seeking to extend their winning play as well by testing a stout pass secondary for Green Bay that allowed tons of yardage to Goff in their last outing. In all, expect momentum to go back and forth in what will be a high-scoring affair amongst teams with Hall of Fame QB’s along with experienced receiving corps.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Green Bay Packers +6.5
My reason for the pick :
Green Bay has the 5th ranked pass defense in the league this year and will be matching up against an experienced passing offense for the Patriots. On the other hand, their rush defense in ranked in the lower echelon of teams in the league in allowing 119 yards per outing. With Sony Michel being out indefinitely due to a knee injury, expect Cordelle Patterson to get the bulk of the carries for a rushing attack that averages 115 yards on the ground per game. Also, look for Aaron Rodgers to have some success versus a Pats pass secondary that allows 277 yards per outing, good for only 27th in the league.
Totals Selection: Pick: Over 56.5
My reason for the prediction :
The over has been the play in two of the last three road games for the Packers while also being the result in the last two home games for the Patriots. Combine this with the fact that the Patriots have struggled in defending the pass while Rodgers enters the game with six TD passes alongside no interceptions, look for the Packers to have a successful day on the scoreboard. Of course, Brady and company will also put some points on the board as well as the scoreboard will certainly light up early and often in this game.
Betting trends for Green Bay Packers:
- Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 9.
- Over is 10-1 in Packers last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 7-1 in Packers last 8 games on fieldturf.
Betting trends for New England Patriots:
- Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games following a straight up win