New England Patriots (9-3) vs Miami Dolphins (6-6)Date : 12/09/2018
Time : 1:00 PM
Location : Hard Rock Stadium
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins return home to Hard Rock Stadium for their 2nd consecutive home game as they will welcome in the New England Patriots in an AFC East clash, the opening kickoff is slated for 1:00. The Patriots have just about sealed up the division while the Dolphins have put themselves back into Wild Card talks after a win last weekend.
New England Patriots's Latest Performance :
The New England Patriots look improved after their embarrassing loss a few weeks back against the Tennessee Titans as they have rattled off 2 straight wins behind solid defense and an efficient offense. New England was able to win at home last weekend against the Minnesota Vikings 24-10. QB Tom Brady was able to pick apart one of the better defenses in the NFL as the veteran threw for 311 yards, 1 TD, and 1 interception. Tom Brady enters the final stretch of the season with 3342 yards, 20 TDs, and 8 interceptions which is one of the best seasons for a 41-year-old QB. The Patriots ground game has been improved this year with rookie RB Sony Michel and although he was able to gain 63 yards last weekend the story of the game was FB James Develin as he was able to rush for 2 TDs. Sony Michel has posted impressive numbers for a RB in an Air Raid offense as he has gained 649 yards and 5 TDs in 9 games. RB James White hasn’t been as big as a threat on the ground but his presence has been felt through the air as he added 92 yards on 7 catches against the Vikings. WR Josh Gordon was the lone pass catcher for the Patriots to reach the end zone as he had 3 catches for 58 yards and a TD. The defense for the Patriots has been improved after the bye and they held one of the better QBs in check as they forced Kirk Cousins into 2 interceptions. The McCourtney brothers led the way with a combined 13 tackles while Duron Harmon and Jonathan Joseph contributed the interceptions.
Miami Dolphins's Latest Performance :
The Miami Dolphins were able to put themselves back in the hunt last weekend as they beat the Buffalo Bills in a divisional matchup 21-17. QB Ryan Tannehill received his 2nd straight start after being injured early on in the season and the 30-year-old played well as he threw for 137 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 interception. Tannehill has led the Dolphins to wins in his 7 starts but his problem has been his turnovers as he has been picked off 6 times compared to 13 TDs. The ground game was unable to gain much running room against an underrated Bills defense as leading rusher Frank Gore was held to 21 yards on 8 carries and Kenyon Drake was held to 31 yards on 7 carries. Veteran RB Frank Gore has cracked the 500-yard mark on the season as he has gained 616 but he has failed to reach the end zone through the first 13 weeks. The Dolphins are without top WR Danny Amendola as the former Patriot has been sidelined with a knee injury. 25-year-old DeVante Parker has shown spurts of his potential this season but he played well against the Bills as he led the way with 43 yards and a TD while Kenny Stills added 4 catches for 37 yards and a TD. The Dolphins defense has been hit or miss this season but they played well against the Bills especially in the back end. LB Kiko Alonso led the way with 11 tackles while CB Xavien Howard recorded 2 interceptions which gives him 7 on the season.
How New England Patriots & Miami Dolphins Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
New England is 8-4 ATS, 3-3 ATS on the road.
Miami is 7-5 ATS, 5-1 ATS at home.
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
New England ranks 7th in the NFL in team scoring as they score an average of 27.6 PPG while Miami ranks 25th as they score an average of 20.3 PPG.
New England ranks 9th in the NFL in team defense as they hold opponents to an average of 21.6 PPG while Miami ranks 20th as they hold opponents to an average of 25 PPG.
Against The Spread Selection: Miami Dolphins +9.5
My reason for the pick :
The New England Patriots are coming off two impressive wins but this seems like a trap game as they may now be looking forward to the playoffs after just about locking up their spot. The Dolphins don’t possess the weapons to upset the Patriots but they are at home and they always play the Patriots well in Miami and not to mention they are 5-1 ATS at Hard Rock. The Dolphins defense will have to force Tom Brady into a few mistakes and the ground game will have to be efficient if they want a shot of upsetting the Patriots. The Dolphins are still in the playoff race and I feel like Adam Gase will have his squad ready in the biggest game of their season. Take the Dolphins ATS.
Betting trends for New England Patriots:
- New England is 3-0 ATS in AFC East matchups this season.
Betting trends for Miami Dolphins:
- Miami is 2-1 ATS as a home underdog this season.