Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Preview, Prediction, Free Pick, 12-23-2018

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Preview, Prediction, Free Pick, 12-23-2018

Buffalo Bills (5-9) vs New England Patriots (9-5)

Date : 12/23/2018
Time : 1:00 PM
Location : Gillette Stadium

Pick, Prediction, & Preview:

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

The New England Patriots will return home to Gillette Stadium after playing two consecutive games on the road where they will welcome in the Buffalo Bills in an AFC East clash, the opening kickoff is slated for 1:00 PM. The Patriots are fighting for a top 2 seed in the AFC while the Buffalo Bills are moving along their youth movement.

New England won the 1st matchup this season, 25-6.

Buffalo Bills's Latest Performance :

The Buffalo Bills have won some games down the stretch but it may not be what they want as they have crawled themselves out of top 5 range with 5 wins. The Lions are coming off a hard-fought victory at home against the Detroit Lions as it was a slugfest all game with the final score being 14-13. Rookie QB Josh Allen has shown progress down the stretch and this outing was another example of that as he threw for 204 yards and a TD while also adding in a rushing TD. This was one of Allen’s best games of the season for the sole reason of him being responsible with the ball as he didn’t turn it over. Allen enters this matchup with 1633 passing yards, 6 TDs, and 9 interceptions but his mark has been felt more so on the ground as he has rushed for 506 yards and 6 TDs. The Bills were without their top 2 RBs for this matchup which made them look down the depth chart for support. RB Keith Ford was the lead back as he racked up 14 carries for a total of 46 yards in his 1st action of the season. The WRs for the Bills are young and unproven but Robert Foster has started to fill some big shoes over the past few weeks. Foster led the way for the Bills with 4 catches for 108 yards and a TD which puts him just shy of 500 yards on the season with 468. If there was one positive to bring out of 2018 it is the fact that the defense has fought hard week in and week out. Safety Jordan Poyer had a big game against the Lions with 11 tackles which extends him to 84 tackles on the season.

New England Patriots's Latest Performance :

The New England Patriots looked destined for a top seed in the AFC a few weeks back but consecutive losses has pinned this team at the 3 seed in the AFC which will hurt a traditionally good home playoff team like the Patriots come postseason. The Patriots return home after a slugfest loss on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers as they were unable to get much going in the 17-10 game. QB Tom Brady attempted 36 passes where he connected on 25 for a total of 279 yards, 1 TD, and 1 interception. Brady isn’t known as a turnover happy QB as he enters week 16 with 3979 passing yards, 24 TDs, and only 9 interceptions. The Patriots offense has been more diverse this season as they have an abundance of RBs they can throw on the field. Rookie RB Sony Michel was unable to find much running room against the Steelers as he only gained 59 yards on 13 carries while backup Rex Burkhead contributed 25 yards on 4 carries. Michel will have to get busy during the last 2 weeks of the season but he comes into this matchup within reach of the 1000-yard mark with 765 rushing yards and 5 TDs. The dependable WR Julian Edelman had a huge game for the Pats with 7 catches for 90 yards while Chris Hogan hauled in the lone TD of the game. The defense for the Patriots looked improved against the Steelers as they kept a high powered offense to only 17 points. CB Jason McCourtney had a big outing with 9 tackles while safety Duron Harmon contributed 2 interceptions.

How Buffalo Bills & New England Patriots Matchup.

Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:

Buffalo is 5-9 ATS, 3-4 ATS on the road.

New England is 8-6 ATS, 5-1 ATS at home.

In-Depth Analysis of each team:

New England ranks 6th in the NFL in team scoring as they score an average of 28 PPG while Buffalo ranks 31st as they score an average of 15.5 PPG.

New England ranks 12th in the NFL in team defense as they hold opponents to an average of 22.5 PPG while Buffalo ranks 20th as they hold opponents to an average of 24.6 PPG.

Against The Spread Selection: New England Patriots -12

My reason for the pick :

The New England Patriots have not looked like them usual selves over the past 2 weeks but to their credit, they were on the road. The Patriots are one of the best home teams in the NFL while the Buffalo Bills aren’t anything special on the road which will be a problem in this one as New England will be hungry for a win this one. Given the fact that the Patriots only scored 10 points against the Steelers I wouldn’t expect a similar outing especially with home-field being in striking range. The Bills have played with emotion over the last few weeks but don’t feed meat to a hungry dog is a common saying and that’s what we have here. New England rolls by at least 14+ points.

Betting trends for Buffalo Bills:

  • Buffalo is 5-7 ATS as an underdog this season.

Betting trends for New England Patriots:

  • New England is 3-1 ATS in AFC East matchups this season.


I am a sports enthusiast and watch every sport from the NFL to the NHL with everything in between. I have followed sports since I was a young kid and have studied deep into statistics for teams, and players. I am always looking for transactions within sports and find in an interest in every game. Playing every sport growing up has led me to understand every game and look for certain trends and stats.