Indianapolis Colts (10-6) vs Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)Date : 01/12/2019
Time : 4:35 PM
Location : Arrowhead Stadium
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs get their crack at the postseason after having a bye during Wild Card weekend and they will welcome in the Indianapolis Colts to Arrowhead Stadium, the opening kickoff is slated for 4:35 PM. The Chiefs were able to claim the 1st seed after winning the AFC West while Indianapolis got the 6th seed after a week 17 win and they advanced to the divisional round after a win over the Houston Texans.
Indianapolis Colts's Latest Performance :
The Indianapolis Colts have been as hot as any team in football as they enter this matchup winners in 10 of their last 11 games and they will come into this matchup looking to upset the #1 seeded Kansas City Chiefs. The Colts went on the road and saw their divisional rival in the Houston Texans for the 3rd time this season which may be a reason they won 21-7 as they have adjusted to their style. QB Andrew Luck has been a favorite for Comeback Player of The Year and we saw him show us exactly why against the Texans as he threw for 222 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 interception. Andrew Luck has been a huge reason why the Colts are at this point of the season and he put together an amazing regular season with 4593 yards, 39 TDs, and 15 interceptions. The ground game has developed well under Frank Reich and we saw that on display against the Texans as RB Marlon Mack was able to run for 148 yards and a TD, Mack put together a solid season as he entered the postseason with 908 yards and 9 TDs in a three-back rotation. WR T.Y. Hilton has been notorious for big games in Houston and he was once again able to make his impact felt in the Wild Card game as he recorded a team-high 85 yards on 5 receptions. Hilton was easily one of the top Colts WRs this season as he was able to wrap up the regular season with 1270 yards and 6 TDs. The Colts defense has been the most improved unit in football and we saw them keep the Texans silent for most of the game last weekend. ROY candidate LB Darius Leonard was able to have a huge outing as he recorded 13 tackles while Kenny Moore was able to come down with the lone interception of the game.
Kansas City Chiefs's Latest Performance :
The Kansas City Chiefs did not have to play in the Wild Card round after claiming the 1st spot in the AFC but they should come into this matchup fresh as they won their latest matchup over the Oakland Raiders 35-3 back on 12/30. QB Patrick Mahomes has been one of the top QBs in the NFL this season and he was able to produce against the Raiders as he threw for 281 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 interception. Mahomes is having an MVP caliber season as he finished the regular season with 50797 passing yards, 50 TDs, and only 12 interceptions. The ground game has been rediscovered ever since they lost their leading rusher in Kareem Hunt and we saw that on display against the Raiders with 2 rushing TDs. Damien Williams has taken over the starting role and Hunt’s absence and we saw him run for 51 yards and a TD in week 17 which extends his season total to 256 yards and 4 TDs. Perhaps the most important player to the Kansas City offense is WR Tyreek Hill and we were able to see his versatility against the Raiders with 101 receiving yards and a TD while also contributing a rushing TD. Hill has been one of the top WRs in the league as he ended the postseason with 1479 receiving yards and 12 TDs. WR Demarcus Robinson only had 1 reception against the Raiders but he was able to take that for 89 yards and a TD. The Chiefs defense has not matched the production of their offense but they were able to show some potential against the Raiders with a few turnovers as well as only allowing 3 points. CB Kendall Fuller was able to record a team-high 12 tackles while Reggie Ragland and Daniel Sorensen contributed the two interceptions.
How Indianapolis Colts & Kansas City Chiefs Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Indianapolis is 9-7-1 ATS, 6-3 ATS on the road.
Kansas City is 9-6-1 ATS, 4-4 ATS at home.
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Kansas City ended the regular season as the 1st ranked scoring offense as they scored an average of 35.3 PPG while Indianapolis ranked 5th as they scored an average of 27.1 PPG.
Indianapolis ended the regular season as the 10th ranked scoring defense as they held opponents to an average of 21.5 PPG while Kansas City ranked 24th as they held opponents to an average of 26.3 PPG.
Against The Spread Selection: Indianapolis Colts +5.5
My reason for the pick :
As much as I would like to back the top team in the NFL I don’t think I can as the Colts are as hot as anyone in football and they have not played in about 2 weeks which may cause them to come out slow. The Colts offense has been just as good as the Kansas City offense especially over the last part of the season but the difference in this game will be the two tales of the defensive units. The Colts defense has been one of the better ones in the AFC and they have the talent and speed to hang with the high flying Chiefs offense. On the other hand, the Chiefs have not been able to stop very many teams this season and considering they are one of the worst rushing defenses int he NFL Marlon Mack should have a field day. I am tempted to take the ML in this game but to be safe I will take the points in what should be a back and forth game.
Betting trends for Indianapolis Colts:
- Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS as a road underdog this season.
Betting trends for Kansas City Chiefs:
- Kansas City is 1-3 in playoff games since 2014.