New England Patriots (11-5) vs Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)Date : 01/20/2019
Time : 6:40 PM
Location : Arrowhead Stadium
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are set to play in the AFC Championship at Arrowhead Stadium and they will welcome in the New England Patriots, the opening kickoff is slated for 6:40 PM. Kansas City has not made the Super Bowl since 1969 which they lost while the New England Patriots will be seeking their 4th Super Bowl appearance over the last 5 years.
New England Patriots's Latest Performance :
All fingers were pointing against the New England Patriots in the divisional round as they were picked by a ton of people to lose to the Los Angeles Chargers but people forget about playoff New England which resulted in a Patriots win 41-28. QB Tom Brady might be 41-years-old but he played as good as anyone in the divisional round as he threw for 343 yards and 1 TD, but that should come to the surprise of no football fan as Brady had a good season with 4355 yards, 29 TDs, and 11 interceptions. While Brady played well it was the ground attack that truly won this game for New England as rookie RB Sony Michel rushed for 129 yards and 3 TDs while Rex Burkhead added a TD himself. Michel only started 8 games this season but he still almost eclipsed the 1000-yard mark on the season with a total of 931 yards and 6 TDs. RB James White didn’t have as much as an impact on the ground but he continued to be a security blanket for Tom Brady as he racked up 15 receptions for 97 yards, White totaled 87 receptions for 751 yards and 7 TDs this season. One of Brady’s favorite targets throughout his career is WR Julian Edelman and we saw that against the Chargers as the duo hooked up for a total of 151 yards on 9 receptions, Edelman ended the regular season with 850 yards and 6 TDs. The defense for New England was huge against the Chargers as they kept the high-powered offense to only 14 points through 3 quarters. DB Devin McCourty had a busy day with a team-high 7 tackles while CB Stephen Gilmore had the lone interception of the game.
Kansas City Chiefs's Latest Performance :
We saw throughout the regular season how explosive this Kansas City offense truly is and they put on a show in the divisional round against the red hot Indianapolis Colts as they won 41-27. QB Patrick Mahomes looks like he will claim the MVP at the end of the season and reasonably so as he ended the regular season with 5097 yards, 50 TDs, and 12 interceptions. This is the 1st full season that Mahomes has played in and we saw how much Andy Reid trust the youngster as he attempted 41 passes against the Colts where he completed 27 of them for a total of 278 yards. The ground game was fairly strong for the Chiefs as they racked up a total of 3 TDs from 3 different guys. RB Damien Williams is the lead back and he played well against the Colts as he racked up 129 yards and a TD on 25 carries, Williams ended the regular season with 256 yards and 4 TDs. Tyreek Hill might be the most dynamic WR in the NFL and he showed his versatility against the Colts with a rushing TD as well as a monster game through the air. Hill was able to haul in 8 receptions for 72 yards while also taking his lone rush of the game 39 yards for a TD, Hill ended the regular season with 1479 receiving yards and 12 TDs. TE Travis Kelce was Mahomes favorite target all season as he racked up 103 receptions for 1336 yards and 10 TDs, and he once again was able to have a big game against the Colts with 108 yards on 7 receptions. The Chiefs defense has been the downfall of this team but they stepped up and stopped one of the best offenses in the NFL. LB Anthony Hitchens has played well as of recent and he continued his high level of play with 7 tackles against the Colts while Justin Houston was able to rack up 2 sacks.
How New England Patriots & Kansas City Chiefs Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
New England is 10-7 ATS, 3-5 ATS on the road.
Kansas City is 10-6-1 ATS, 5-4 ATS at home.
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Kansas City ranks 1st in the NFL in team scoring as they score an average of 35.3 PPG while New England ranks 4th as they score an average of 27.3 PPG.
New England ranks 7th in the NFL in team defense as they hold opponents to an average of 20.3 PPG while Kansas City ranks 24th as they hold opponents to an average of 26.3 PPG.
Against The Spread Selection: Kansas City Chiefs -3
My reason for the pick :
Sure New England is one of the best playoff teams in NFL history while the Chiefs are the complete opposite but there is a different feel for this years team as the Chiefs have an MVP candidate at QB with a ton of options. New England put on a good performance last week against the Chargers but they are a 10x better home team than they are on the road and given the fact that Kansas City is a tough place to play as it is we may see some problems for the Pats. Kansas City should find success with the Tyreek Hill matchup as while the Patriots have some good DBs they aren’t as fast. The one area where the Chiefs defense needs to step up is on the run game as they were one of the worst run defenses in the NFL this season and given Tom Brady’s success against the zone last week I am sure we will see a lot of man to man which means the pass rush needs to be there for the Chiefs. Kansas City has a strong pass rush with Dee Ford and Justin Houston so if the DBs can hold up for a few seconds we can see problems for Tom Brady and the New England offense.
Betting trends for New England Patriots:
- The under is 11-6 in all New England games this season.
Betting trends for Kansas City Chiefs:
- Kansas City is 9-4 ATS in AFC matchups this season.