Reds vs Brewers preview and predictions 6/28/18




Reds vs Brewers preview and predictions 6/28/18

Milwaukee Brewers (45-32) vs Cincinnati Reds (32-46)

Date : 06/28/2018
Time : 7:10 pm EST
Location : Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio

Pick, Prediction, & Preview:

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds

Game 1 of a 4-game set between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Cincinnati Reds will take place at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio, at 7:10 pm EST on Thursday night.  The Brewers are in 2nd place within the NL Central while the Reds occupy the last place slot within the AL Central division.  In their last outing, the Brewers tied a 4-game home set versus the St. Louis Cardinals by losing 8-2 in the finale on 6-24-2018.  In this game, the Brewers could only muster 6 hits for the game as Christian Yelich and Hernan Perez each were 1-4 with an RBI each while Jhoulys Chacin (6-3) had a forgettable day at the plate as he went 4.1 innings while allowing 8 runs on 9 hits, 5 walks, 1 homer, and 5 strikeouts with an ERA of 3.82.  The winning pitcher in this contest was Luke Weaver (6-4) who pitched 5.2 innings while allowing 2 runs on 5 hits, 2 walks, a homer and 9 strikeouts with an ERA of 4.59.  Jose Martinez went 1-5 with 3 RBI’s in this game while Matt Carpenter went 1-3 with 2 RBI’s.  the Cardinals covered the spread as slight underdogs (+115) while the over was the play in that the total was set at 8.5 runs for the game.

The Reds pulled out a convincing 4-game sweep of the dangerous Chicago Cubs this past weekend with an 8-6 finale win on 6-24-2018.  The Reds cashed in on the money line as underdogs (+126) while the over was the play in this game also in that the total was set at 9.5 runs for the game.  Sal Romano did not factor in the decision as he pitched 5 innings while allowing 5 runs on 8 hits, 1 homer, 1 walk, and 6 strikeouts with an ERA of 5.40 while Mike Montgomery went 6 innings while giving up 4 runs on 6 hits, 1 homer, 2 walks, and 6 strikeouts with an ERA of 3.39.  Joey Votto was 3-4 for the Reds with an RBI in the victory while Jesse Winker remained red-hot by going 1-3 for the night with 3 RBI’s.  Albert Almonte Jr. was 3-5 with an RBI while Javier Baez went 2-4 with an RBI.  Finally, Anthony Rizzo was 1-4 with 2 RBI’s on the day.  This will be the 3rd meeting of the year amongst these two teams as the Brewers have won 5 of the last 6 meetings while taking 2 of the last 3 games at Great American Ball Park on 5-2-2018.

Milwaukee Brewers 's Latest Performance :

The Brewers have lost 3 of their last 5 games to where the O/U was 2-3.  Recently, the Brewers would tie a 3-game road set against the Pittsburgh Pirates on 6-20-2018 with game 3 being postponed due to weather.  The Brewers would also go on to tie a 4-game home set versus the St. Louis Cardinals on 6-24-2018.

For the season, the Brewers are averaging 4.34 runs per game (18th) with a team batting average of .245 (15th), 95 homers (11th), and 58 stolen bases on the year (4th).  Their pitching staff has an ERA of 3.47 (4th) with 676 strikeouts (14th), along with 24 quality starts (28th).

Lorenzo Cain (.291 BA on 265 AB), Ryan Braun (.239 BA on 197 AB), Travis Shaw (.242 BA on 256 AB), and Domingo Santana (.249 BA on 185 AB) have been the most consistent offensive weapons for the Brewers this season.

Jhoulys Chacin (6-3, 92 IP, 42 R, 83 H, 7 HR, 40 BB, 71 SO, 3.82 ERA) has been a bright spot for this Brewer pitching staff this season.  Brent Suter (8-4) has also been instrumental for the Brewers this season as he has pitched 82.1 innings while allowing 39 runs on 78 hits, 13 homers, 17 walks, and 67 strikeouts for the season.

 

Cincinnati Reds's Latest Performance :

The Reds have won 4 of their last 5 games to where the O/U was 3-1-1.  Recently, they would sweep a 2-game home set versus the Detroit Tigers on 6-20-2018 while sweeping a 4-game home series versus the then-1st place team in the NL Central, Chicago Cubs.  After this series, the Reds fought valiantly on the road against the Atlanta Braves on 6-25-2018, yet, would ultimately lose by a slim 5-4 score in game 1 of a 3-game set.

For the season, the Cincinnati Reds are averaging 4.49 runs per game (11th) with a team batting average of .255 (8th), 82 home runs (19th), along with 35 stolen bases (17th).  Their pitching staff has an ERA of 4.76 (26th) with 595 strikeouts (25th), and 21 quality starts (29th).

Jesse Winker (.257 BA on 214 AB), Scooter Gennett (.331 BA on 284 AB), Tucker Barnhart (.263 BA on 232 AB), and Joey Votto (.307 BA on 244 AB) have been valuable to the offense this year.  Jose Peraza (.264 BA on 295 AB) has also been a pivotal piece in the offensive puzzle for the Reds.

Tyler Mahle (6-6) has pitched 86 innings and has allowed 40 runs on 85 hits, 15 homers, 36 walks, and 81 strikeouts along with an ERA of 3.98.  Finally, Luis Castillo (5-8) has pitched 83.2 innings while allowing 55 runs on 85 hits, 15 home runs, 32 walks, and 81 strikeouts with an ERA of 5.70.

How Milwaukee Brewers & Cincinnati Reds Matchup.

Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:

For the season, the Brewers are 44-33 ATS while the O/U is 30-45-3.  On the other hand, the Reds are 44-34 ATS while the O/U was 37-37-4.

 

In-Depth Analysis of each team:

Game 1

Junior Guerra (3-5) will come to the mound for the Brewers in game 1 looking to win his first start since 5-14-2018 when he pitched 6 innings while allowing 2 runs on 3 hits in a 7-2 road win at Arizona during the D’backs freefall early on in the season.  Since, Guerra has went 0-2 with 5 no decisions in his last 7 starts.  In his last outing, Guerra pitched 5 innings while allowing 1 run on only 3 hits in a tough-luck home loss against the St. Louis Cardinals on 6-22-2018.  In his last outing versus the Reds, Guerra pitched 5 innings while allowing no runs on only 1 hits with 7 strikeouts in a 2-0 home win on 4-17-2018.  The under has been the play in 7 of Guerra’s last 8 appearances while the Brewers are only 2-3 with the righty starting in the rotation.  Nonetheless, the right-hander has only allowed 11 earned runs in his last 7 starts and looks to build from his last outing against a team that he has had success against.

Adam Duvall (3-9), Scooter Gennett (1-2), Eugenio Suarez (2-3), and Billy Hamilton (2-4) has had the most success against Guerra in the past; However, Tucker Barnhart (0-2), Jose Peraza (.167 BA on 6 AB), Scott Schebler (0-3) and Joey Votto (.222 BA on 9 AB) have had their problems with the righty in the past.

Anthony DeSclafani (3-1) will come to the mound for the Reds in the opener looking to post his 4th win in a row and 5th in 6 starts.  In his last outing, DeSclafani pitched 6.1 innings while allowing 2 runs on 3 hits, 3 walks, 2 homers, and only 3 strikeouts in a 11-2 home win over the reeling Chicago Cubs on 6-23-2018.  The over has been the result in 3 of the righty’s last 4 starts while the Reds have been 4-1 in his last 5 starts.  He did not, however, have a great outing against the Brewers in his last outing against this team dating back to 9-23-2016 when he went 6 innings while allowing 5 runs on 6 hits, 3 walks, 1 homer, and 4 strikeouts in a 5-4 road loss.  DeSclafani has been credited with only 10 runs in his last 4 starts on 22 hits.

Christian Yelich (.400 BA on 5 AB) and Jonathan Villar (2-6) have had the most success against DeSclafani in the past while Hernan Perez (1-5), Ryan Braun (2-10) and Orlando Arcia (0-2) have not fared as well against the right-hander in their careers.

Game 2

Chase Anderson (5-6) will come to the mound on Friday night in the follow-up game to the opener as he would certainly like to build from his last outing where he pitched 5 innings while allowing 1 run on 2 hits, 4 walks, 1 homer, and 9 strikeouts yet suffered the 3-2 home loss versus the St. Louis Cardinals on 6-23-2018.  In his last outing versus the Reds, Anderson pitched 5.1 innings while surrendering 4 runs on 6 hits, 4 walks, 1 homer, and 4 strikeouts in a 7-6 road victory in 5-1-2018.  The under has been the play in 3 of Anderson’s last 4 starts while the team, overall, is only 1-4 while he is on the mound in his last 5 appearances.  He has given up an average of 3 runs per game in his last 6 starts.

Anderson has not fared well against many of the more dangerous hitters within the Reds lineup in that Tucker Barnhart (2-3), Adam Duvall (.286 BA on 7 AB), Scooter Gennett (.286 BA on 7 AB), Billy Hamilton (.250 BA on 12 AB), and Joey Votto (3-9) have all have a decent amount of success figuring him out.  On the other hand, Scott Schebler (0-3) and Eugenio Suarez (.091 BA on 11 AB) has not been able to have any type of success against the right-hander in the past.

Sal Romano (4-7) will make yet another start for the Reds in game 2 looking to forget his last outing where he pitched 5 innings while allowing 5 runs on 8 hits in an 8-6 win in which he received the no decision on 6-24-2018.  In his last outing versus the Brewers, Romano pitched 5 innings while allowing 2 runs on 4 hits, 2 walks, 1 homer, and 4 strikeouts in a 2-0 road loss on 4-17-2018.  The Reds are 5-1 in Romano’s last 6 starts while the over has been the play in 3 of his last 5 starts.  Romano has been credited with 33 runs in his last 8 starts, yet, looks to get his act together against this Brewers lineup that has struggled with consistency recently.

Orlando Arcia (0-3), Hernan Perez (0-2), Eric Thames (0-3), and Christian Yelich (0-4) have had major troubles against Romano in the past.  Travis Shaw (1-5), Eric Sogard (2-4), Manny Pina (2-4), Jonathan Villar (1-2), and Ryan Braun (.571 BA on 7 AB) have had a decent amount of success against the righty in the past.

Game 3

The pitcher for the Reds have not been determined for game 3, however, despite his horrendous last outing, Jhoulys Chacin (6-3) will come to the mound hoping to erase the mental residuals from his last outing where he pitched only 4.1 innings while allowing 8 runs on 9 hits, 5 walks, 1 homer, and 5 strikeouts in an 8-2 home loss versus the St. Louis Cardinals on 6-24-2018.  In his last outing versus the Reds, things did not go well as Chacin went only 4.1 innings while allowing 4 runs on 5 hits in a 6-5 win to which he received the no decision on 4-30-2018.  Despite his last performance, Chacin has come into the game only being credited with 14 runs in his last 9 starts while the team is 5-2 with him at the mound.  The under has been the play in 3 of his last 5 games.

Tucker Barnhart (.250 BA on 4 AB), Adam Duvall (.333 BA on 6 AB), Billy Hamilton (1-3), Jose Paraza (1-4), and joey Votto (.375 BA on 8 AB) have had some success against Chacin in the past while Scooter Gennett (.111 BA on 9 AB), Scott Schebler (0-2), Eugenio Suarez (0-5), and Jesse Winker (0-3) have all indeed struggled against the righty in their respective careers.

Game 4

The pitcher for the Reds have not been named, however, Freddie Peralta (2-0) will come to the mound in the finale looking to win his 3rd start in 4 appearances.  This will be Peralta’s 4th start of 2018 as he has been credited with 4 runs in last 3 starts while the under has been the play in 2 of his last 3.  The Brewers are 3-0 in his last 3 starts.  In his last outing, Peralta pitched 6 innings while giving up 0 runs on 2 hits, and 7 strikeouts in a 3-2 road win versus the Pittsburgh Pirates on 6-19-2018.  This will be the first matchup against this Red’s lineup, however, he has allowed only 6 hits with 25 strikeouts this season and will look to confuse the Reds lineup just enough to get the win.

Against The Spread Selection: Picks: Game 1, Game 2: Cincinnati Reds/Game 3, Game 4: Milwaukee Brewers

My reason for the pick :

Though it may be a bit overlooked, however, the Reds are gaining some serious momentum at this time of year.  They have not only won 7-straight (13 of their last 17), but, their offense has certainly been the catalyst for their most recent play.  With that being said, the Reds have not only have had success against Guerra (game 1 starter) but against Chase Anderson (game 2) as well, and I expect this to continue in the first two games of the set.  Of course, I expect DeSclafani to pitch well in the opener and will do his part to neutralize the Brewers hot and cold offense, I seem to think that since Romano has play so well lately, he will certainly also be able to contain the Brew Crew offense enough in which to allow his team to put some runs on the board and come out with a much-needed win in order to continue attempting to make some noise in their division.

The Brewers, on the strength of their ace Jhoulys Chacin, will get the victory on Saturday afternoon in game 3 as he will certainly be looking to make amends to his team for his last horrendous outing.  Besides, Chacin has have a decent amount of success against the Reds lineup which, in essence, will be a critical benefit for the Brewers on their way to getting a slim victory behind a pitcher who has not had many bad outings at all this year.  In the finale, Freddie Peralta, who has pitched very well this year thus far, will be coming to the mound for the Brewers.  Again, he has missed considerable time off the mound yet continues to prove the naysayers wrong as he has really been coming through for his team since being reinserted back into the rotation.  I expect his sharpness to continue in what will be only his 4th outing of the year against what is becoming a dangerous Reds team.  Nonetheless, due to the strength of his overall pitching lately combined with the fact that the pitcher for the Reds is not known at the time, I will take the Brewers to come out with the victory on Sunday as well, thus tying the series, altogether.

Betting trends for Milwaukee Brewers :

  • Betting Trends for the Milwaukee Brewers

    • The Brewers are 4-6 in last 10 road games
    • The Under is 7-3 in Brewers last 10 road games
    • The Brewers are 8-10 in last 18 games

Betting trends for Cincinnati Reds:

  • Betting Trends for the Cincinnati Reds

    • The Reds are 9-2 in last 11 home games
    • The Over is 7-3 in Reds last 10 home games
    • The Reds are 11-4 in last 15 games

Falepa

A sports analyst and enthusiast, Filipa enjoys writing articles for NHL, NBA, NCAAB, and, of course, for NCAAF. In addition, he enjoys the true art of breaking down games in such as way as to locate certain trends that can impact future contests. With a willingness to research, construct, and relay information that any reader can understand, Filipa aims to provide the reader with interesting & indepth knowledge for upcoming sporting events.